Originally Posted by
EI-EIDW
Forgetting that AF schedule will take some of the traffic from EI AMS schedule. Its unfortunate passengers could well end up suffering CDG over AMS as a hub long term if for example EI exited AMS. KL may not be in a position to expand to x2 daily.
KLM's big block on expansion at AMS is the cap on movements at Schiphol.However, expect to see Transavia move more and more leisure flights out of the airport. Most likely alternative is Lelystad, which would start to become Luton to Schiphol's Heathrow. In many ways Rotterdam would be a better option than Lelystad, being at the heart of the most densely populated part of The Netherlands, but restrictions there are quite onorous considering the low level of traffic at the airport.
Without that block, I would be unsurprised to see KLM increase to multiple times daily to Cork, even with the Aer Lingus presence.
Regarding the Winter, nothing has been announced yet and as what KLM really want are connecting passengers, if Aer Lingus offer EI844/845 four or five days a week, in particular on Thursday and Friday, there's a very high chance they won't operate. The cost wouldn' tbe worth the benefit.
In terms of what the Air France schedule will hit, the biggest impact will surely be on Heathrow. That accounts for almost 80% of connecting traffic in Cork at the moment. If Air France are successful, it's not at all inconceivable that Heathrow would drop to 3x daily, freeing up a valuable slot there for other use.