Originally Posted by
WE Branch Fanatic
One possible NATO scenario puts a UK carrier based ASW task group (with NATO frigates and SSKs) in the Eastern Atlantic and/or GIUK gap to conduct task group ASW (Merlins with dipping sonar, frigates (and destroyers) with towed array (and hull mounted) sonar and submarines as part of the task group. Meanwhile the F-35B can counter Bears, Backfires, and so on.
The UK has committed a carrier capability to NATO, and this seems similar to the Cold War and the roles of CVS/Sea Harrier/Sea King.
Yes, I know that this is now the favoured narrative among carrier supporters, hence my comment about 'blue water ops'. And it's absolutely not what the Government had in mind when it agreed to invest billions in the carrier strike concept. Sure, the strategic picture has changed since the late 2000s and CONOPS have to evolve. But the idea of committing the UK's 5th gen effort to countering Bears and Backfires instead of exploiting its capability to operate in defended airspace is an odd one.
You need speed, good range and endurance, large numbers of air-to-air weapons, early warning and ideally tanker support to make a good fist of the air defence role. None of those are strong suits of the QEC air wing. In the NATO context, it has to be said that the USN air wings are much better-suited to it.
I'm ready for the 'party line' response to that, too: that the UK carrier group's availability lets the US do something else with one of theirs. But one of the aims of NATO is famously to 'keep the Americans in' and offering them an off-ramp seems an odd way of going about that. Besides, you only have to follow the news to wonder whether the 'something else' would always be aligned to British interests.
It's not a compelling narrative, IMHO. If there is a SDSR next year (which looks all the more likely now that we'll have a new government as the 5-year point since SDSR15 approaches) then there will be some interesting debate about how to beef up QEC group capabilities so that it can do more under Article V than simply relieve the US of an Atlantic commitment. Where would the cuts fall to make that happen? Or might it be decided that QEC will stay ocean-bound in any Article V plans, leading to announcement of the first UK A-model acquisitions? An interesting year beckons, for sure.