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Old 9th Oct 2019, 12:07
  #229 (permalink)  
Aero Mad
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Guernsey's population is basically half the size of Jersey's; there is a problem of strategy/utilisation but also a complete political failure to address Aurigny's funding, and a lack of political joined-up thinking in the simultaneous introduction of open skies and the decision to fund a competitor airline to fly a competitor route (Heathrow); although Economic Development say the route was offered to Aurigny but Flybe offered a cheaper and better-timed operation, the end result (if one looks at the CAA stats) is an almost direct leakage of 3-4k passengers per month from LGW to LHR, and the States of Guernsey spending about £66 per passenger (when I last worked it out, including lost revenue on GCI-LGW) to compete with itself. As far as I can see the only way Aurigny would ever balance the competing ends of making money and providing a satisfactory level of service would be in a protected regime with sole operator status on GCI-JER, with a larger market supporting the community service and intense seasonality of the ACI operation, and on GCI-LON as the thickest market in supporting the wider regional operation, which could then be left to open skies. This setup would effectively use the profitable (commercial) part of the operation to support the unprofitable (community service) part, which was the traditional model of Aurigny operation from 1968. However, now that genie is out of the bottle there will in practice probably be little change of squeezing it back in again. In the absence of suitable regulation, the only other way is to derive a suitable cost advantage on the routes - particularly the inter-island ones might work well for electrification in the next 5-10 years - which could destroy the rationale for competitors' ATR/Q400 ops. But that requires investment and foresight which is also presently lacking. Probably only a new generation of politicians and managers would get us there on that - but one just has to hope that the current setup doesn't sap to extinction the political will for Aurigny's existence in its current form.
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