Originally Posted by
763 jock
A minority of bond holders are out to protect their position and are adopting poker face. Fosun and the lending banks have already agreed a recapitalisation and want to own their respective shares of the tour operators and airlines. They are trying to negotiate a deal that can be approved by consensus.
Meanwhile, Thomas Cook have an administrator on standby in the event that the minority bond holders derail any deal. This is because the nuclear option is a “pre pack” administration.
My view, a bumpy two weeks ahead but Fosun and the lending banks will be in control either way. The CAA will be aware of all of this.
The problem is the airline cannot be in the control of administrators for any period of time. The CAA is obligated by law to suspend an AOC of an airline in administration. The pre-pack would have to see the airline transferred to other 'fit and proper' owners prior to the admiration proceedings. Of course this is separate from the issue with the ATOL license, which is not directly related to the AOC. It is possible for the travel arm to end up in administration, but the airline does not. However, if the travel arm is a real mess it could lead the airline into insolvency. Not saying it is going to or even likely to happen, but there are permutations where it could.