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Old 6th Aug 2019, 16:50
  #809 (permalink)  
alicopter
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: uk
Age: 62
Posts: 55
Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
And size.
The UK GDP is half the size of Japan, one fifth of China (and rapidly shrinking) and one seventh of the US and the EU. How can it expect to negotiate a favorable trade deal with a major nation from a position of weakness? Even India will soon overtake it in the size of it's economy. If the UK loses Scotland and Northern Ireland eventually it will decrease in size by 15%. And trade agreements on average take 5-10 years to figure out. If the UK is desperate for any type of deal it'll rushed and full of errors, and not at all favorable to it's position. Even then a few years of no trade agreements which will have to occur if leave is accomplished on Oct 31st will contract the UK GDP even more, further weakening it's bargaining position. It'd be an ongoing cycle.

Plus sources in the US Congress have stated they will stop any UK-US trade deal unless something is solved with regards to the Irish border and backstop that won't break the Good Friday Agreement that looks unlikely.
Trade deals. I wonder sometimes if the UK wanting Brexit at all cost has something to do with the fact that the EU since April is screening Foreign Investment and that puts London in a "tricky" position ref laundering/tracking money/tax avoidance? But does it make sense if the City looses access to the rest of the EU market? Mind you, if it is why France has taken the lead, even in front of Germany for Foreign Investment lately, it is a nice gift!. Thanks to this switch and the flux of new Corporations going into Paris (even with the new taxes soon to hit them!) they are a welcomed break so, thank you Brexit somehow. Are Russians still queueing up in Malta Offices buying EU passports? Seems to me that so much dirty money being available to be invested in "clean" circuits, it's reaching a breaking point. My own bank in France is asking me justification of a few transfers from UK to their coffers... if they are that thorough with ALL the fluxes, that's a good move, I don't mind... knowing they won't allow the City to be the next Tax Haven or Singapore on Thames... (Dream on!!! What else???)
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