Originally Posted by
GoEDI
There's still enough increases on other routes to keep slow growth of around 2-3% going for S19 I reckon. W19/20 is certainly looking challenging at this stage, likely to be largely flat at best. I think there's a good chance STN will return once the MAX issues are resolved and deliveries start rolling in to FR...
No surprise on NYC, there's under capacity on that route during peak summer now given it's lost 3x daily flights in the past couple of years. Supply/demand is a balancing act. I do think there were too many seats, but I now believe it's gone too far in the other direction. Why no wide bodies? DL have chosen to add BOS, and UA are still establishing IAD, instead of putting more capacity on NYC at this stage.
It would come as no surprise to me to see EWR/JFK upgraded to larger aircraft over the next couple of years when DL/UA are next ready to review capacity at EDI. With UA now sending B767s to LIS and MAN, I believe EDI is the only year round EWR route still on B757. With that in mind I'd say it's a matter of when, not if. DL have already used B763s a couple of times this season, not sure if due to pax loads though.
Not all of the traffic is heading to New York, a lot will be carrying on to other destinations. This traffic is now being adequately served by transfers through Boston, Washington and Chicago. Just because the number of seats to New York has decreased, doesn't mean there's now a shortage of capacity - the transfers will have moved elsewhere, freeing up capacity for New York bound passengers.
Even if there is a shortage of seats, increasing capacity is a difficult balancing act, it's not as simple as just putting a 767 on the route. To do so, you need to remove the 767 from another route. So first you need to find a route that is struggling and down gauge it to a 757, or a route that is doing well and can be up-gauged to a 777/787.. but only if you drop a 777/787 destination etc. Given the lack of range of the 757, this is going to limit your options on where you can send it in the first case.
The second option is to add another daily 757 flight, like they used to. However, Newark is at capacity and there are no spare slots available, so to do this will involve dropping an existing route. You've also then got to factor in what else that slot could be used for - are they going to make more money on a second daily EDI, or could they make more launching a new route or increasing frequency to somewhere else in Europe.
The final option is to keep things the way they are, and keep charging higher fares.
You can't just think about EDI on it's own, and what it needs. There's only so many aircraft to go around, so any changes will need changes elsewhere in the system to accommodate it.