As
@Australopithecus suggests, the weather that is going to affect you in 7-10 days time, is based on winds and moisture that are halfway around the world right now. There is currently a gap between forecasts which extrapolate from models, and warnings that take data directly from satellites, sensors and radar. That may change in the future.
Mainstream media understanding of these topics is limited, but some sources have a good grasp of the details:
https://physicsworld.com/a/debate-ra...r-forecasting/