Originally Posted by
tdracer
(from up_down_and_out's link)
Even if the two crashes are unrelated to the aircraft, if it takes that much maintenance and can't average at least 8 hours/day utilization, no one's going to want it regardless of how cheap they can sell it.
That is true at present but doesn't need to always be so. Changing from an IRAN style maintenance program to something like MSG-3 or phase programs takes some time but is not impossible. The aircraft is relatively conventional, and should not need more maintenance overhead than any other aircraft made of the same materials doing the same task. I've only flown some former CIS military jets and helicopters, but they are build solidly. For the same vintage western aircraft, they are comparatively rugged in design, and usually well thought out. The engines can be a pain, but these ones seem to have been well designed. Redoing the maintenance program to make it rational is a matter of will to do so, rather than cost or even time.
It seems to be a shame to trash a fundamentally competent design for the sake of lack of will to make it work. The losses of the SSJ to date have primarily been crew related, that means there is an opportunity for a 142 program to provide appropriate training. The production system appears to be well put together, and the spares availability is again a lack of will and funding rather than inability to provide an effective supply chain. The most recent accident may have brought up a possible PIO issue in some situations, but that is able to be cured, even for the total electrical failure case that may be novel in the latest event. Overall, I would consider that it remains a viable candidate for support from the Govt to get it going as an export product and for domestic operation.
Relationships across the border may be fragile at this time, but international trade works to break down borders through self interest, and that is the problem with the direction that is being followed in the land o the great PX at present, building barriers increases risk of conflict, same to the former CIS products, countries that are trading with each other tend to avoid hot conflicts.