Originally Posted by
ASRAAMTOO
I wonder if there is actually any genuine attempt to relocate or if the actual plan is to just to flog the Cambridge site for a huge pile of cash and retire. Will there be a press statement in a few months that says something like
"We have considered all the alternatives but none of them are viable (for the reasons outlined in the threads above!). Sadly therefore we have decided to leave the aviation business."
Not in a few months, but quite possibly in a few years. Although Herc support is the bread and butter and they support several air forces beyond the UK MOD, a lot of the work those overseas air forces would far prefer to be done (by those governments) in their own countries where Marshall set up ops there, in country and in process train their own native people how to do the work. Anything physically done in the UK usually has to be offset by business generated in that country - i.e. a £50m deal with Denmark or Botswana to modify their aircraft in the UK will have to have £50m of work created in Denmark or Botswana for something else. Those deals are a pain in the backside to facilitate. With more of that philosophy and the UK Hercs being phased out (by when?), all that C130 demand in the UK will diminish radically and the odd, big, civil airliner upgrade is not going to pay the wages at the rates they need to charge to be competitive with say Eastern European MROs - trying to charge say £55/hour in the UK when the work can be done for £40/hour in Slovakia means you either barely break-even or you don't win the work in the first place. Marshall's greatest strength is their project management capability and their design capability - all back-office. Turning spanners they're good at too, but not at a competitive price on the world stage - unless at paper-thin margins. They're also very good at designing and making bespoke, low volume sub-assemblies, specialist components etc., none of which needs a runway or hangars. Much as they would like to do much more special missions conversions for which the global market is huge, they will never compete with US players on a cost-effective basis but they do have all the expertise, but limited in-house intellectual property.
So, where they have 1.5m sq.ft. of hangarage today, chances are they'll only need a third of that by 2025 - or they just give up that part of the equation and remain a design and project management house with component and sub-assembly manufacturing capabilities - all of which can continue on any business park in Cambridge, or anywhere else in the country.