Originally Posted by
kcar
Time to command on EK777, hm let’s see..
The B777 fleet expansion is over so you’re looking at attrition alone. The current rate is about 100 skippers per year leaving/retiring with 1300 skippers in total so you do the math. The 777x will replace old ER according to fleet management.
You also need to factor attrition from both seats. I wouldn’t be surprised if more FOs leave than skippers, so you won’t be waiting for 1300 FOs to upgrade. My batch was an exception, but 5 out of 7 left before a course for various reasons.. QF-LOA etc.
The 777x, when fully up and running, will possibly take on additional ULR routes requiring more crews and more LHS. And the unknown is the 787. Also, there is no clear replacement for the 380... perhaps newer 300ERs will be retained with the 777 fleet growing again from 2020.