Originally Posted by
GordonR_Cape
To understand the prior probability of two independent failures, would require use of Bayes Theorem, and statistical data on each failure mode.
Isn't Bayes' Theorem a way of calculating conditional probability? If two failures are truly independent of each other, you don't need Bayes to work out the probability of both happening together.
Having said that, I have no idea what are the two independent failures the poster is referring to - one is the AoA vane detachment, but what is the other one ?