Originally Posted by
DaveReidUK
Two independent failures would indeed be a bizarre coincidence.
To understand the prior probability of two independent failures, would require use of Bayes Theorem, and statistical data on each failure mode. It is clear from the (lack of) response to queries about rates of AOA failure, that this data is scarce.
I have stated previously that AOA fail nose-down would give interesting information, but if the vane departs, the failure will always be nose up. Isn't that even more ironic, that the only known failure mode is 100% guaranteed to trigger MCAS!?
The fact that the MAX is a new aircraft may have something to do with the Lion Air fixed offset error, but presumably bird-strike frequency has nothing to do with the model type.