Originally Posted by
ProPax
If the past 16 years of wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen are any indication, I don't think it's an assumption.
The amount of support for those varies, and it seems to decrease (among the allies) as time goes on. That the US had a serious and public fracas with Turkey in re what was going on in Northern Syria, to the point that they pulled people out of the country, isn't a small thing. (Though such rifts can be healed if there is good will on both sides).
I just don't think NATO, i.e. the US, have any choice. They try to "withdraw" but they get get drawn back into it, deeper each time.
I think it is very much choice since the decision to go into Iraq in 2003. The Germans and French chose to provide some support in Afghanistan, but not in Iraq. Each such situation will be colored by national interests, as does Aircraft Buying. (Hey, back on topic) The Germans are not buying the F-35; that recently became clear. You make the point that you think Turkey leaving NATO means Germany soon follows. Not sure how that works, but perhaps the Germans can underwrite the new Turkish fighter needs, rather than the Americans, when the German requirements and planning goes into full swing. That does not help NATO, though, in terms of commonality and support for operations with a common air frame. But we already deal with that and know how to.
Their dear friends Saudi Arabia
With friends like those, who needs enemies? I was personally glad to see the Turkish response to that killing ...
. NATO is already involved in Iraq and Syria; Egypt and Lybia will follow soon,
Here we disagree. Libya has come and gone as a NATO operation and I disagree that
NATO will go into Egypt. The desire to untangle / disengage in Syria is palpable but does fall afoul of the point you raised previously: hard to get out.
likely to be joined by Nigeria and Sudan who also share the anti-Western sentiments.
Significantly different geostrategic situations, particularly Nigeria.
Just like Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS before them, this whole "Arab spring" will backfire tremendously on the US
It already has. What began as support for it has cooled/faded.
in the coming years, and NATO will be drawn in those wars.
Given the public response to both the Syria and Libya across NATO, I very much doubt it.
And while Turkey is not quite the ticket geographically, for those potential conflicts, it is a Muslim country that can mediate a lot of rough edges.
Yes. the question here is the confidence, or lack there of, in the Erdogan regime's ability to play the honest broker. He's pissed away a lot of good will.
Turkey is the ideal (and very willing!) "buffer" between the NATO and the Orient.
So Far. Mr Erdogan has demonstrated a Turkey First and Turkey as local regional leader platform (understandable if you look at the world from where he sits) which may or may not align with the broader NATO goals (whatever those may be). His cuddling up with Putin sends a powerfully negative signal.
Losing it as a NATO partner will be devastating, because then Greece becomes the buffer,
Yeah, that's a clear eyed take on it. Your underselling of Italy's position I'll simply disagree with.
This latest F-35 disaster (NOW we're back on topic!) will only drive them further away and deeper into the nationalist tempest.
This latest F-35 kerfluffle is a symptom, not a cause.
As with the Israelis, who was really paying for the F-35's there? I remember some loan guarantees on an FMS contract from 20 years ago that underwrote the Turks 'buying' modern aircraft. They didn't have the money, so who was paying the bill? Washington.
As bloody expensive as the F-35 is, do you really think Turkey is playing cash and carry? I don't.
I'll guess at less NATO, not more, in Libya soon unless the Italians and French decide that they have to go in.