Originally Posted by
GordonR_Cape
2. In the event of AOA failing nose up and MCAS activating (25% odds), there is an overwhelming fatality rate. There are no known survivors other than the preceding Lion air flight, and unfortunately that airframe was destroyed the very next day, so there is little evidence to strip down and examine (apart from the FDR).
Does this provide some context on the relative scarcity of such occurrences?
A disconcerting mystery is why the crew of the preceding LionAir flight didn't feel like they had miraculously dodged an insidious malfunction, and instead handed the aircraft to the next crew with little warning of the mortal danger that lay ahead. And why the airline allowed the vehicle back into the air after an emergency had been declared on that preceding flight, without fully understanding the nature and source of the flight control issues experienced.
For some reason I'm less concerned about the automated flight control issue than the fragility of the safety processes enacted in the event of a declared emergency. If that Lion aircraft had been grounded immediately following the pre-accident flight ...