With reference to the Forsyth review and the general feeling that there is no progress towards coherent safety culture in Australia the next stages of decline are:
1. Official corruption appears - the ideal breeding ground for corruption is a complex contradictory regulatory environment with onerous and expensive compliance costs and draconian penalties for non compliance, including loss of investment.
The corruption first appears as offers solicited or unsolicited, by an official to “help” by doing something as simple as filling in a form. I still recall my bewilderement in Germany when customs officers recoiled in horror when I asked them to do this for me - anti corruption rules were the reason.
Pretty soon the lower levels are “helping” smooth the way for “friends”. The level of “help” gradually increases as the “helpers” are seen to get away with it.
The next stage is when the kickbacks up the tree start. At this point we find that getting “help” from”friends” is no longer optional. Unless you pay, you get nothing. The boss is watching and wants his cut.
2. Return on investment is required. Now that the industry, or some of it, is paying, two things happen. Those with morals ethics and standards leave the industry. Those left - willing to pay for play, demand some return on their investment. This takes the form of relaxation of technical standards and other cost saving measures. Maintenance suffers for example but the regulator does nothing. Whistleblowers get fired because the regulator rats on them.
3. At some point we have a major accident. The regulator and company conspire to deflect responsibility elsewhere. Finally there is one too many accidents. The public demand accountability they get a royal commission. We go back to square 1. and the process starts again.