Now there can finally be a competition between FVL demonstrators. Sultan exaggerated the Defiant schedule delay. First Flight was per DOD contract supposed to occur in the fall of 2017. So the Defiant is approximately 16 months late.
The hurdle for the SB>1 team now is completing all the FVL Key Performance Parameters by the end of this year, as required in the DOD contract. Based on the Sikorsky Raider still not having completed it’s flight test goals, there may not be adequate time for the Defiant. Especially if any more unpredicted problems occur.
Of of course the Army can always change the rules of the competition to give the Defiant a chance to catch up. Not very fair to the people at Bell and suppliers that busted their tails to keep their promises.
I predict a government announcement in the next couple months stating the Defiant will be given additional time to catch up with the Valor. The only question is how much time.
If I can be permitted to drone on:
There's no actual competition between these two demonstrators. Right now
they are part of the Joint MultiRole-Technology Demonstrator program.
That's a program to demonstrate advanced powered lift technologies
which could be used for a future program to actually produce an
operational aircraft. In the actual governmentspeak of the Army, "JMR-TD
is a demonstration of transformational vertical lift capabilities to
prepare the DoD for decisions regarding the replacement of the current
vertical lift fleet". It was going to require "Significant investment
by industry". Army looked at proposals from AVX, Bell Karem and
Sikosrky-Boeing and in 2013 chose the V-280 and SB>1 to proceed to the
demonstrator stage, while AVX and Karem received smaller contracts to
keep developing their technologies in the lab. Originally there were to
be two phases, one would be the air vehicle demo and the other would be
work to prepare to demonstrate missions system architecture. When the
actual competition took place, the winning air vehicle would be expected to
use whatever mission system won that competition,. I don't know if
they're following through with the Phase II demo.
Although the V-280 and SB>1 proposals were selected for JMR-TD flight
test, Army says what actually comes from the Future Vertical Lift-Medium
(FVL-M or FVL Capability Set 3) competition will not necessarily be
production versions of them. Frankly, though, it's thought they will
have a big advantage. Since FVL CS# is intended to replace at least the
UH-60, UH-1, AH-1 and maybe the AH-64, along with exports, that big a
potnetial market made industry willing to put up a lot of their own
money.
More governmentspeak: "The FVL acquisition program of record for
Capability Set 3 is utilizing the JMR TD knowledge base robustly in the
Analysis of Alternatives and acquisition planning". Bear with me, I'll
probably be a bit off in the following dates. The original plan was that
both demonstrators would fly in 2017. 2018 would see both aircraft
demonstrating their technology's capabilities, help Army determine how to
use aircraft with these advanced capabilities, what to look for in
an operational aircraft and develop datasets that wold be used in the
future FVL-M competition. 2019 and 2020 would be used to analyze the
data. Around 2020 an actual RFP for FVL-M is hoped to be issued refining the RFI
that was issued in 2016 based on what was learned in JMR-TD.
That would
be the actual competition. There would expected to be a flyoff looking
to a contract award somewhere around 2024. Then would follow a prolonged
EMD period of eight years or so, culminating in an IOC somewhere between
2032-34, depending on who you ask and when.
There is some concern that with a schedule that long, other fiefdoms
will try and grab some of the FVL-M money for their own pet projects.
Also, with all the Congressional and Presidential elections before
IOC, it'll be hard to keep political support focused given that
politicians voting the money won't be able to point at something for which
they can claim credit in the next election for quite a while. OTOH,
the interest shown in FVL-M by all the services and potential foreign
operators will be a big help.
That plan, though, has been knocked a bit off course. Sikorsky's
repeated inability to get SB>1 into the air will at best force a delay
in the whole process, unless Army was willing to write the technology
off, and there would be too much lobbying going on that would prevent
that.
A bigger potential problem for FLRAA (Future Long Range Assault
Aircraft), Army's new name for FVL-M comes from the Army itself. In
recent times they've started beating the drums for and elevating the
priority for FARA (Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft), the new name
for FVL-Light. This will be the fifth attempt to field a replacement for the
OH-58, a requirement unique to the Army and which will not advance
capability or the technology nearly as much as FLRAA. An initial RFP has
already been issued, and up to six contracts are to be issued for the
next development stage in June. In March 2020 this will be cut down to
two bidders to participate in a flyoff in 2023. A contract award for a
program of record is planned for 2024, with IOC in 2028. Nowadays
that's blazing speed, and it's interesting how some of those dates
parallel what was originally hoped for for FLRAA. Where the money is
going to come from to support both programs without stretching one out
(guess which) is an unanswered question.
Hope I haven't bored everyone too much.