PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Forecast Accuracy
View Single Post
Old 14th Mar 2019, 11:12
  #7 (permalink)  
Sunfish
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: moon
Posts: 3,564
Received 89 Likes on 32 Posts
I think the lawyers have got at the forecasters. What is available is hopelessly conservative. Volatile weather isn’t forecast at all, since to a lawyer, no forecast at all is a better strategy that a potentially wrong forecast.

The result? when forecasting deteriorating Wx. they always forecast an hour earlier than predicted. Improving WX is always forecasted an hour later.

Your TS were probably forecast but not issued on the basis of a “who could have known? defence. Think about the lawsuits over acres of hail damaged cars and wrecked aircraft if the bureau forecasts TS that then turn out to be monsters. If there is no forecast, well, you can’t be liable can you?

The genesis of all this was the fatal Sydney - Hobart race when the bureau came close to getting sued.
Sunfish is offline