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Old 14th Mar 2019, 08:59
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hiltonbaby
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Australia
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Forecast Accuracy

As I sit here I have hail, severe downbursts significantly reduced visibility in a storm that 1 hour ago the TAF had no indications of. 2 hours ago the AWS had SCT 061 when it was actually OVC A017 ( BTW I am an approved Aerodrome weather observer). My point is the main BOM site indicated all day that storms and weather were possible but not the TAF, no inter no nothing. The cells were literally 10nm SW before the TAF was amended, as a response not actually as a forecast.

In winter the BOM will put inter or Tempo for fog and reduced viz in a destination that is known for never having fog. In 30+ years 2 fogs, both from the sea in the middle of the day neither forecast. When MET were located at this aerodrome the worst it got was shallow fog on the flora surrounding the aerodrome never on the movement areas.

So in times of actual prudence there is none and in times of no danger its panic stations. Since Mildura its just become hopeless. Carry the fuel for a no chance event (historically) and have no real reserves when a cell is in the circling area. I think it is outrageous and cannot understand why they believe the AWS when they could just look at the ASA webcam for the aerodrome and take it onboard that their systems are dangerous and don't work.
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