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Old 26th Feb 2019, 08:26
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Emma Royds
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
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Originally Posted by ERJ190


Is it really like that? Do you believe that the upgrade time is significantly increasing in the next few years?
I always thought that the short time for upgrade was mainly due to the large Number of pilots leaving back home instead of the growth alone. I’m strongly considering applying to QR or EK and this is the main factor to me, once it’s almost impossible to achieve a reasonable payment merged with a nice career in South America.
It would take a significant amount of attrition to create time the time to command that we have witnessed to date.

If you look at this simply with some very rough maths using 4000 pilots with 1000 F/Os on the 777 and the 380 each. Even with 10% attrition on its own (which is probably on the high side), it would take 10 years for an F/O joining now to work their way up. In reality, there are slightly more than 4000 pilots and there is not a 50/50 balance between the 777 and the 380 but I just wanted to illustrate the point that, you will face a longer wait if you simply take attrition into account.

The 777 fleet will in fact shrink slightly, as there will be no new 777 deliveries until the 777X arrives yet the steady trickle of retirements of older 300ERs will continue.

Also worth pointing out that there is limited capacity to expand at DXB due to the shortage of parking stands on the EK aprons during the rush hour periods. Any move to DWC will be a few years away at the very least.

Last edited by Emma Royds; 26th Feb 2019 at 08:36.
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