Thread: Anti Vaxxers
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 16:46
  #28 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Southport
Posts: 1,068
Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
With the austism thing there was an Insurance mathematician stats guy that does the risk calcs and insurance loadings went on a statistics hunt to do with the increase in Autism. I have tried to find a link to it but haven't managed

In summary he started with the autism figures in the US by state and year dating back to just after the war and then tried to find a link between them and other social changes and if he found one then tried to find a link between that and other geographical variations.

being a n insurance dude he had access to much more and well formatted data to work with..

The first run through with just the years came up with something like 10-12 variables which the autism rates matched. Vaccination wasn't one of them.

He then ran the geographical spread using those 10-12 variables and came up with 1.

He then crossed back and used weather historys to see if it backed up the variations he was seeing

That variable was TV ownership. The geographical variation mean that those with mild summers when the kids were out side more had less of it.

The weather history also tracked the variation.

He then ran a child number and family size. turned out that the second or more child was more likely that the first to have it and suggested that this was because that child was exposed to more TV younger with the older one watching it.

Being a none stats person his analysis seemed way more convincing than the anti vaxx stuff.

The suggestion was that 50/60 hz exposure of a bright screen while the brain is developing over cooks it and can cause it to form short circuits due to over stimulation. Until the TV came about humans didn't have any reason to develop protections against this through evolution.

So my kid got vaccinated and got nil telly until he was 3 and now only gets 30 mins per day maximum on the lowest brightness setting and he has to be on the couch 5 meters away from it.
Interesting stuff... did he take into account the increase in diagnosis rate for autism though, as it's become more understood the diagnosis rate has gone up. Certainly there were kids when I was at school 40+ years ago who back then were labelled dumb and shoved in a corner out the way. Some of them would probably now be correctly diagnosed as autistic. At the other high functioning end it's even worse, very few get diagnosed and even fewer of those are female as they are better at masking it.
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