Airbus were
always going to build their own 'Big One' to prove that they could do it. Their problem was timing - much of which is outside the control of any company. The 74 arrived at
just the right time to be the success it was. But, for the 380? In no particular order:
- Other technolgies made big twins unexpectedly more flexible and reliable
- Proliferation of carriers, it is amazing how many people and companies want to start a new carrier, despite history showing the 'brimstone path'
- World politics has changed
- World politics is going to continue in this unstable mood for (I suggest) at least two decades
- The Lo-Cost carriers have changed a great deal beyond just their own short haul shuttles
- Public expectation of prices and service is fickle
- The Interweb allows pax to check prices across multiple carriers from their own sofa. No longer the queue at the high street agent and a sense that, 'if you don't book it now it will go'. Because they can check from their sofa every day for a month before booking. No carrier is safe from that.
- For Emirates, they started off with highly competitive fares to gain market and now want higher profits - which pax may not like.
- The China carriers have been agressive in taking capacity and may not be subject to the same subsidy regulations as Europe
- Development cycles cannot possible predict the rapid Boom and Bust economics of today
- With modern news transmission, a single event in one country can cause thousands of families to change their booking plans overnight and getting them back takes years.
- On the other hand, if there is more consolidation of carriers, there may be a better overall life for this remarkable machine
- Whilst tele-conferencing is taking some business (I worked in telecommunications and IT for 27 years from before the start of video conf era) the need to go and meet the client on their own turf will never go away
I no longer travel on business but, for leisure actively seek out the 380 and avoid the 787 but I know that many pax like the 78. Likewise, the 777 is 'meh'. So I hope this ugly machine stays around and am sorry to see it fail. Super/Hyper sonic is no mainstream threat in the foreseable future.