Originally Posted by
TRUTHSEEKER1
The big question is : " Would you think it is safer for a VFR pilot to go up into IMC than try to stay VFR below the crud? This again is a supposition because it is unknown whether Dave Ibbotson has an IMC or Instrument Rating?
I saw some interesting and (to me) surprising statistics on an AOPA video recently. I was surprised to see that VFR into IMC is almost as dangerous for instrument rated pilots as for non IR pilots. I guess that was based on USA data, and it might be due to a mix of rusty skills and aircraft not always ideally set-up for IFR. But essentially the message was that statistically, a VFR flight plan that unexpectedly enters IMC is at very (very) high risk regardless of other factors.
Given the weather, would we not have expected an appropriately qualified pilot to file an IFR flight plan? Skimming back through this thread, I cannot see evidence of whether or not that was done, but the fact that he was messing around at 2,500' over water strongly suggests to me (with zero personal experience) that he was trying (hoping) for VFR all the way. That in turn says that pilot capability was by far the biggest risk factor at the start of this flight, the fact that it was single engine over water would seem to be a very minor concern in comparison. That was a damned nice plane! I am sure I will never get to fly anything like that!