Originally Posted by
IBE8720
Myth. Longer term strategy to drive down terms and conditions.
The airlines need to get more pilots fighting for a job. And it is working, flying schools in Europe have solid bookings for ATPL courses. As supply goes up, conditions go down, fact of life hombre.
I have only ever read article’s from manufacturers and employers saying there is a shortage, NEVER A PILOT/JOBSEEKER.
In demographics is destiny.
The reason why four or five generations of pilots have not seen a shortage is because this one has not been experienced before.
https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/
"The ‘pilot shortage’ debate is an oversimplified way to brand the ‘coverup’ of many structural problems in the industry."
With staggering entry costs, a narrow skill band, restrictive state rules and limited employers, the employers had the upper hand with unlimited supply a cornerstone element of their model.
.Acceptance and rejection rates for new hires, and incumbent pilots was all factored on the ASSUMPTION that there existed sufficient additional supply.
Normally the business cycle sees the hiring patterns and processes re-supplied the entry level with fresh applicants. As the retirement rate continued rising, the industry model, mostly adversarial, was simply not equipped to recognise and ultimately address with changed input prices resulting from localised shortage: They continue to try to drive down terms and conditions, for that is what they always did.
Baby Boomer pilots who are the largest number — almost 50% of the pilots flying today — are about to retire. And over the next 20 years, [commercial] passengers are going to double.
From the Forbes article below, the problem the industry faces is that the recruitment, training and promotion paths, indeed the very infrastructure in which this upgrade throughput occurs cannot cope with such a roll-off of experience from the top of the experience pile. It has not been seen before, thus the industry is ill equipped to deal with it. Leaving aside the Boeing projection' of growth, which, after all is marketing, the retirement rate alone is staggering and a function of date of birth. That it represents 50% of all airline pilots in North America is making airlines notice!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisag.../#cf3aedc15492