Originally Posted by
cncpc
I have a friend who is very experienced ex Canadian TSB investigator. He tells me that when the actual cause of an accident is determined, it rarely is what everybody originally thought it was. Or was sure it was.
Sometimes it is, and sometimes it isn't; Cork and Chalgrove are two examples of relatively recent incidents where this forum basically had the primary cause nailed on day 1.
I'd agree that rigorous and thorough accident investigation makes a substantial contribution to air safety and I'm not suggesting for a moment that we shouldn't do all we reasonably can in this, or indeed any other case.
That said, it seems from what's been posted that there are many things that were wrong in this case that will remain wrong whatever the primary cause. In my opinion, even finding wreckage showing incontrovertible proof of catastrophic engine failure won't make conducting this flight in the manner it was conducted any more of a reasonable decision.