Originally Posted by
cncpc
+1.
I have a friend who is very experienced ex Canadian TSB investigator. He tells me that when the actual cause of an accident is determined, it rarely is what everybody originally thought it was. Or was sure it was.
i dont think recent history supports the broader points. There have been many accidents recently where the basics of what people assume within the first days perfectly align to the basics of a final report several years later. There is little doubt that this accidents cause will focus upon weather and the pilots ratings and the aircrafts equipment with the sub-theme of discussion around the commercials