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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:56
  #1413 (permalink)  
ORAC
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,005
Just been doing the maths.

If TM brings the bill before the HoC on Monday 21st January the, presumably, there would be at least 2 days of debate to finish that interrupted in December before it came to a vote, and tha5 assumes no amendments and debates in amendment.

Assuming a vote and it failing on the 23rd, then JC could call for a vote of no confidence on Thursday 24th. Assuming it passes a further 14 days must pass to see if an alternate government can be formed, taking us to 6th Feb.

The PM must then agree the date of an election with the Queen, allowing a minimum of 25 working days in between. That makes the very earliest Election Day Thursday March 14th. That’s very unlikely as the PM has to go to the palace and agree a day and the appropriate parliamentary work has to be done before parliament is prorogued, but let’s take it as possible.

Following the election the earliest date for State Opening of Parliament and Queen’s speech after an election is in fact the second Wednesday, not a Monday. That brings us to the 27th of March. The debate on the Queen’s speech then follows in a set format taking at least 1-2 working days (normally 5-6) before before other legislation can be introduced. Which takes us to, at the very, very earliest 30th March.

Brexit having occurred the day before.

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