Originally Posted by
BigGeordie
Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?
For someone to make up their mind about joining EK for a quick command they need data to support their decision either way. Unfortunately the company's (Mr. AAR) decision was to scramble the seniority list back in 2016. Why that decision was made I do not know but the only logical conclusion would be to make it less transparent.
Luckily there will always be someone in some department that are willing to spill the beans so here it goes:
About a week ago there were 2643 B777 pilots, 1410 CPT's and 1233 FO's
One year ago that number was 2623, 1322 CPT's and 1301 FO's.
The reason the amount of Captains went up was due to the sudden requirement that all 3 men operations needed to become 2 CPT and 1 FO, whereas EK before operated 1CPT/2FO
About 105 captains resigned last 12 months. Last 3 years it's been pretty consistent around 100 (2015 - 96, 2016 - 103)
6 DEC (direct entry captains) joined.
Moving ahead with 3 key facts in mind:
Upgrade is solely depending on attrition as the fleet is no longer expanding.
B777X is a replacement program, not expansion
Around 100 skippers leaves each year.
The current total number of pilots divided with number of airframes suggests 16 pilots per airframe (2643/165) with a ratio of 8,5 CPT to 7,5 FO.
13 airframes leaving 2019 meaning 13*8,5 = 110
less skippers needed
At present, an FO that joined B777 in:
Nov -17 has about 1070 pilots ahead of him/her.
Nov -16 / 955 ahead
Nov -15 / 575 ahead
Nov -14 / 440 ahead
Nov -13 / has about 350 FO's more senior.
Realistical conclusion is practically nil upgrades 2019, 100-120 upgrades 2020 onwards.
Half of the guys joining between nov-13 and -nov14 will see their upgrade 2020 and the other half 2021 setting the time to command to about 7 years.
It'll stay pretty constant for a few years to slowly increase to 8 around 2023 onwards.
That's based on current fleet plan, rate of people leaving and upgrade policy.
Someone joining 2019 will wait 8 years++ for a command on B777 factoring in senior FO's leaving and an increase in numbers of CPT's leaving.
Common arguments:
"there are many locals in that list that is far away from upgrade".
True and false, There are about 190 UAE nationals with staff numbers <430000 that is included in these numbers.
However, around 100 of them have staff numbers <399000 meaning they'll be up for command fairly soon
"my buddy that joined 6 month before me just got his command on the 4 year mark so I should be up pretty soon"
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.
"a lot of FO's have missed out on their upgrade and are permanent FO's"
About 50
On a side note:
Total number of EK pilots:
Nov 18: 4231.
Nov 17: 4200
Nov 16: 4215
All-time-high was February 2017 with 4250
You can scramble numbers to hide the truth but never the opposite!