Originally Posted by
Ian W
Many of the flights to Dubai are for passengers not going to Dubai but flying through. I fly to Atlanta often twice a week but I have only wanted to actually go to Atlanta about three times in the last 5 years. As soon as the thin ULR routes allow pax to go direct to destination then the number going to interchange hubs like Dubai will reduce to a level that an aircraft with a 400 seat capacity cannot be justified. This is especially the case with the fuel economy (and freight carriage) available from smaller twin jet widebodies. It is probable that several hubs will see their interchange traffic reduce and it may affect the airlines based at those hubs in the same way that direct flights from low cost carriers cherry picking attractive thin routes, have reduced the market for spoke-hub-spoke flights from the majors in the US.
Another way to look at the "hub bypass" proposition is to consider how many of the passengers on those 400 seat flights into DXB (or any hub) will be heading for the
same ultimate destination. It's only those pax (or rather, a proportion of them who aren't too price-sensitive), plus - possibly - any pax making the same connection over a different hub, who represent the market for a direct flight between the two spoke points.
For all the possible connection opportunities over the hub (as pointed out above), only a very small proportion will turn out to be potential hub bypass markets.