Given historical retirement / leaving rates at Virgin without taking into account any fleet growth or reduction you could probably work on the following time line for B737 Commands.
NZ: 8-10 yrs
PER: 10-12 yrs
SYD: 12-15 yrs
MEL: 15-18 yrs
BNE: 20+ yrs
It’s also worth remembering that we’ll get a new CEO next year so there could be any number of significant changes coming which could effect these time frames.
- we have an 11 aircraft wide body fleet which has never made a dollar for the company. Will they go? Or if the keep the wide body fleet and go to a common type will they increase the fleet size to try and get some profitable economies of scale?
- Does Alliance continue to fill our 100 seat jet requirements going forward on a more permanent basis, much like Colbam do for Qantas? Or do we bring it back in house like the E-jet?
- what happens with the VARA F100’s when they can no longer be supported with spare parts in a few years time? Do they get replaced? Does that flying get farmed out to Alliance as well? Does VARA get wound up?
- What happens to the ATR fleet going forward? Do they try and grow it into the regional market again? Or do they wind it up?
- what happens to Tiger going forward? Does it grow or stay the same?
Lots of questions that won’t be answered now till we have a new chief in the chair. But the answer to these question will have a profound effect on the career progression of anyone who has joined Virgin in the last few years, or is looking to join Virgin in the future.