Originally Posted by
msbbarratt
Well, we can't really tell. Another way of looking at it is that Airbus know that Emirates are too deeply committed to the A380 to be able to walk away from it just like that, and are prepared to leverage that position to make Emirates pay to keep it alive instead of bearing that cost themselves. Ultimately it's all a game of bluff.
A world economic boom would possibly increase the demand for an airframe like the A380. The aircraft can still be ordered, and if that remains the case all the way to the next upturn in the economy that could (and I must emphatically point out that I've not used the word "would"!) leave Airbus sitting pretty whilst Boeing fail to persuade anyone that their tiny little 777 is worth a dime. I exaggerate purely for effect...
I've occasionally wondered (flights of fancy, etc) just how committed to the A380 Emirates actually are. It's clear they'd prefer a NEOised version, but can't persuade Airbus / RR to do it. This is understandable, especially given RR's current difficulties; they've got to clear their current problem backlog before they commence yet another program. However, I'm wondering if Emirates would ever consider buying a controlling (or sufficiently large) stake in Airbus / RR to force the issue. The combined market capitalisation of both Airbus and Rolls Royce is currently somewhere about the $124billion (I think that's right in US$). Say Dubai spent, what, $40billion buying big stakes. Dubai could probably afford that. Would that be enough for Emirate to be able to "insist" a NEO is done? Is $40bill worth it if it means that they can continue their goal of global dominance of the long haul market by guaranteeing supply of the aircraft large enough and efficient enough to do it?
Like I said, a flight of fancy, but then by ordering so many already they've already demonstrated a willingness to bet pretty big sums.
The 2008 financial crisis ended long ago, the global world economy has been doing well for a while now. Except for the silly potential trade wars that Trump is threatening us with. But overall the economy is doing very well as signified by rising interest rates. We should in fact expect another recession in 2019/2020 so A380 seems to be doomed based on your analysis.