Originally Posted by
msbbarratt
Well, we can't really tell. Another way of looking at it is that Airbus know that Emirates are too deeply committed to the A380 to be able to walk away from it just like that, and are prepared to leverage that position to make Emirates pay to keep it alive instead of bearing that cost themselves. Ultimately it's all a game of bluff.
A world economic boom would possibly increase the demand for an airframe like the A380. The aircraft can still be ordered, and if that remains the case all the way to the next upturn in the economy that could (and I must emphatically point out that I've not used the word "would"!) leave Airbus sitting pretty whilst Boeing fail to persuade anyone that their tiny little 777 is worth a dime. I exaggerate purely for effect...
I've occasionally wondered (flights of fancy, etc) just how committed to the A380 Emirates actually are. It's clear they'd prefer a NEOised version, but can't persuade Airbus / RR to do it. This is understandable, especially given RR's current difficulties; they've got to clear their current problem backlog before they commence yet another program. However, I'm wondering if Emirates would ever consider buying a controlling (or sufficiently large) stake in Airbus / RR to force the issue. The combined market capitalisation of both Airbus and Rolls Royce is currently somewhere about the $124billion (I think that's right in US$). Say Dubai spent, what, $40billion buying big stakes. Dubai could probably afford that. Would that be enough for Emirate to be able to "insist" a NEO is done? Is $40bill worth it if it means that they can continue their goal of global dominance of the long haul market by guaranteeing supply of the aircraft large enough and efficient enough to do it?
Like I said, a flight of fancy, but then by ordering so many already they've already demonstrated a willingness to bet pretty big sums.
Today EK is not only committed to the 380, they are stuck with it. Stuck because no one can persuade AB to throw good taxpayer money after the wasted one and develop the aircraft into something affordable and profitable without huge taxpayer discount. Without the latter the 380 would not squirt one sound and without EK's cancellation of 70 (good and now dearly missed) 350ies to the benefit of 40 RR-380ies, RR would have gone broke. In exchange Tim Clark got his "Sir" and HH of Dubai was re-allowed running his horses at Ascot.
Considering all that it seems crystal clear that EK themselves would never ever throw up one dirham to "persuade" AB to build a NEO, TC would just continue to "demand" it and pronounce all other airline managers fools because they do not order the 380.
Dubai buying some stakes at AB? Buying means having money in the first place and if anyone pretends that Dubai could "afford" that, they probably have not set foot and lived in the sandpit lately.
It is actually neither the loving and tweeting passengers (or diligently writing "fans" on here), nor the "proud" operator(s) who will finally decide on the fate of the 380. It is built with an enormous infusion of European tax-money, can most probably never ever be profitable, so its life depends entirely on the willingness of the EU partners to subsidise it eternally for the sake of jobs, share value and pride.