+2
Let's be realistic. For the HKAOA, the success of any talks is proportionate to leverage. It will have nothing to do with an intellectual debate or any altruristic desire by the company to "right" all the previous "wrongs". For whatever reason the HKAOA's leverage from CC/TB has deminished and we are now looking at resignation rates to generate leverage.
Despite all the rumours about resignations, what I see as a "line driver" is a relatively stable roster on the 777 and Airbus fleets. The freight operation has an inherent instability and whether the 747 roster is "unstable", I am in no position to comment. I say all this by drawing a comparison to 2015 when I saw;
1. The occasional aircraft parked (sometimes with pax boarded and waiting for crew).
2. Pilots grounded from hitting 900 hours or not completing regulatory training.
3. Big phone arounds by Crew Control to crew aircraft.
4. The Company forming "working groups" in an attempt to stabilise the roster.
5. A lack of reserve coverage.
From my vantage as a line driver, I presently see none of those 5 things happening to any extent and certainly not to the extent I saw in 2015. Now, we will know in the next few weeks if it was true that resignations spiked in the first 3 months of the year. Would the loss of 90 pilots brings the HKAOA leverage?, I honestly don't know. However, I see nothing in GH's letter indicating that the Board is putting money on the table. Perhaps I am reading too much into GH's letter, but I read it as any deal must be "give and take" self-funding. Is that what we want?
I accept that I don't have any inside info, but what I do know is that you only go into negotiations when your leverage is at the maximum. As a line driver, it appears our leverage is not at maximum and rather than waste time and distract the members, the GC would be wise to return to the huddle and maximise the effect of CC/TB and then hope resignation rates do the rest.
Interestingly, we again seem to be heading into talks in May which is very adjacent to the next GC election and I very much hope we will not see the rushed chaos we saw in 2016.
Bottomline, unless the GC is sure the company is putting money on the table, walk away and focus on building leverage and enter talks at a later date from a position of strength, not desperation or exasperation.