Originally Posted by
Easy Street
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If the Tornados were launching Storm Shadow they would probably do so from beneath the radar horizon of land-based SAM, ....
Correct, but do not forget about the Russian ships that would be moved forward (in fact, already moved "for training exercises"). They would detect the launch pretty soon. And they have means against such missiles.
Also, have you heard of OTHR (over-the-horizon radars)? Russia does have some and East Med is transparent for them (and "stealth" does not work here). Of course they can't guide anti-missiles, but early warning is quite important in such a scenario to give land-based SAMs enough time to get ready.
Third, considering the recent episode with the Israeli attack, even "grand-dad's" C-125 and "dad's" Buks operated by the Syrians were able to intercept 5 of 8 relatively new and smart A2S missiles.