I've heared from several sources that the oil price may never rise again due to the falling demand that will come from the mass adoption of electric vehicles.
There are a number of issues with the fantasy of electric vehicles, least of all the generation of electricity which predominantly is generated using either fossil fuel (coal) or nuclear. The energy budget to build and run electric vehicles is a little more intensive than Mr Musk spruiks.
If one speaks to geologists or indeed 'oil people' their consensus is that it is in decline. The IEA has a plethora of public data and the 'convertible' reserves known in the world. Sadly the discoveries have not kept up with the consumption for decades, with annual consumption rising 1.3%. Discoveries have not kept up. The Permian basin and Bakken fields in the USA and the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia are in decline and those who understand the geology realise that the shale industry creates enormous problems refining; it usually requires blending with heavier oils as it is thin. The refineries can't refine it without it being blended. There are no easy ways out of it!
Manufacturers and engineers are working on many ideas to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the hope of all electric cars is a little way off, if the issues of electricity generation and indeed rare earth metals (required for battery) scarcity can be solved.
Thus whilst Mr Joyce may well hope that fuel prices stay low, it would be prudent use of shareholder capital to re-equip Qantas with at least equal number of twin engined aircraft thereby lowering their fuel included CASK, growing Operating Margin and reducing emissions.
Whilst it is overdue that capital be directed at Qantas and having lost a lot of ground are doing something new (hence the title of this thread) it still seems irresponsible to waste shareholder funds on share buy backs.
Qantas need a new fleet.