Nearest Airstrip...etc...
Let me again say that in this Project there are two sides to it:’
The Factual Side:
The discovery of an engine in the jungle which was later said to be a WASP engine. The airframe was also seen and no military insignia was seen to be on it. From the information supplied to the U.S. Army by the Australian Army , the U.S. Army stated that the find was a Pratt & Whitney Wasp engine and could be from a Lockheed as Lockheed were big users of P&W engines. They were not interested. However, two Officers from a nearby American unit did show some interest.
Note that during the conflict in New Guinea the only Lockheeds used among multi-engined aircraft were the P-38 and F-4 & F-5
PR versions…. , other aircraft were Consolidated, Boeing, North American, Douglas and Curtiss using radial engines of 1100 and 1200 H.P. You do not use a 600 H,P. aircraft anywhere near to Rabaul in a war situation. I researched through the USAF Museum and communicated with the curator there and he assured me no Pratt & Whitney S3H1 Wasps went to New Guinea during WWII from U.S. sources on military aircraft. No S3H1 designated engines were used on Military aircraft except for some prototypes being evaluated for use by the Military and these were biplanes from the early 30's...
None of the Electra’s sold to Australia were lost in New Guinea. Those airframes were powered by the P&W R-985 or the Wright R-975
Earhart was stuck in LAE for two days and met with Guinea Airways people. For the world trip her representatives scouted for suitable jumping off points and Rabaul was considered but at the time there was Volcanic eruption there.. LAKUNAI airstrip and VUNUKANAU were in existence. Surely, she and Noonan would have known about those. Pilots also discuss known strips with other pilots. I see no reason why someone would have not said to her, “If you encounter bad weather or a technical problem Vunakanau has just opened, you can duck in there." Sound feasible ?
What we have then, is that there are two P&W R-1340 S3H1 engines where they
“should not be”.
The Hypothesis Side
There must have been some concern on the aircraft when it was discovered that the wind out of the East was double the forecast, as evidenced by the 23 Knot wind (26.5 mph) discovered when they rounded the corner just West of the NUKUMANU Atoll. This is evidenced by them being blown to the West of Nukumanu on the leg from CHOISEUL as reported in the 0718 GMT Lat/Long position. They could have only determined that position after working it out by a timed run from the turn to a position abeam Nukumanu Island itself, the biggest island in the atoll.
To their dismay…. They have a 26 mph headwind that they have to cope with if they are to continue. They should have turned back but a celebration in Los Angeles awaited them on July 4th. A sure case of
“Pressonitis” developed. Personally my thought is that if I had been on board there would have been an argument. That’s how I see it.
Mary Lovell (Author of "The Sound of Wings") reported that at 0800 GMT Earhart radioed: “On course for Howland at 12,000 feet”. Lovell got that from Harry Balfour the Radio Operator at LAE.
Now, “I” did not take that 12,000 feet call into consideration when I worked the fuel used from then on (after 0800 GMT). Maybe I should have because it is known that Earhart did fly the Electra at 12,000 feet in the U.S.. Also, there is the point that the night-time cloud layer may have been at the 10,000 foot level and she went over it for a clear view of the night sky, needed for Astro.
Flying higher at 12,000 instead of 10,000 will use less fuel. Maybe I should run the numbers at 12,000 feet and see what I get. I didn’t use 12,000 feet because of the prolonged exposure above the Oxygen level but then again, maybe I should. I myself have been at 11,500 feet on a mountain top for two days and felt no ill-effect.
I consider the wind situation after Nukumanu to be serious. The
ONTARIO at Sea Level was facing into a 20 Knot wind from 082 degrees, that is in the Ship’s Log, who is to say that the wind at 10,000 or 12,000 was not anywhere near 30 knots ? If Noonan did not get Astro he will not know the wind.
One Air Niugini pilot ferrying a Dash 7 aircraft from TARAWA to PORT MORESBY told me he was concerned about the wind at Flight Level 140 in the ITCZ until he encountered a quartering tailwind of 45 knots shown on his GPS. His fuel worries were over. That was also in mid-year.
So we have all these variables that we cannot determine with any surety but the fact is they didn’t reach Howland. My
Hypothesis working at Best Lift/Drag to economise on fuel shows it to be impossible for them to be at Howland or lateral to it at 1912 GMT, I have them 250 miles short.
That is the
Hypothesis.
Arising from the
Hypothesis is the
Contingency Plan to turn back to The Gilbert islands. If you have a contingency to turn back if you do not find your destination, you have to have "contingency fuel" a level you cannot go below. If you are unsure of your position you have the single choice of turning back or turning towards where there is land that you definitely know exists and The Gilberts are the perfect choice in this case. Turning NW for the scattered Marshalls or SE for the scattered Phoenix Group is madness if you do not know where you are on a trackline. The Gilberts were perfect because they form a line across a reciprocal on a turnback and are difficult to miss.
If they are short of Howland as in the
Hypothesis they will see The Gilberts earlier than the four hours she thinks it will take.
We have then the report by Georner of the "Land in sight" call timed at 2200 GMT.
We do know that on the morning of their supposed arrival at Howland that the wind was 31 mph at 7000 feet from the East.
It will be recalled that the “rescue” PBY from HNL had to turn back for Hawaii after encountering sleet and icing conditions on the flight down to Howland. Weird weather for the tropics in mid-year,.
Island Hopping
If a straight line is drawn on a map or on Google Earth from Nukumanu through the Mortlock Atoll and through Carteret Reef and continued westwards, the line will go over where we are searching.
The nearest airstrip available in 1937 to where we search is VUNAKANAU about 35 Nm away almost due North.
Greg 47:
There can be no “modern day ” bone analysis… the Bones were lost in Fiji 70 years go. Didn’t you know that ?
Didn’t you know that two Doctors who examined the bones in 1941 stated the bones and pelvic remnant were
MALE ?