Here is the scale of the problem just in Japan over the next decade +. By my ballpark calculation, Japan will need to train about 5,500 additional pilots over the next 12 to 15 years based on the numbers in the article.
Who is going to bear the financial risk for the trainees for those unable to get a part loan?
This is the nub of the problem for operators. Nobody wants to bear the risk of spending a very large sum of money only to realise the candidate is not suitable. No operator is going to guarantee a job without a qualification, and few potential pilots are going to take an all-or-nothing risk without a guarantee of a job?
Ultimately national governments will probably have to subsidise some of the risk for both the potential pilot and the operators to solve this dilema.
Interest-free loan program takes off to aid Japan's future pilots
Starting from next academic year, a select number of students dreaming of becoming airline pilots will be eligible to borrow a total of 5 million yen interest free under a new financial aid system called "mirai no pilot" (future pilots).
The funds are being provided by the freshly founded aircraft pilot scholarship foundation, whose representatives include four private universities offering piloting courses -- J. F. Oberlin University, Tokai University, Sojo University and the Chiba Institute of Science -- together with vocational school Japan Aviation Professional College, and New Japan Aviation Co., which offers flight training programs. ANA Holdings Inc. and Japan Airlines Co. will partly cover the cost of operating the foundation and will help select students for the program based on entrance exam scores, English language ability and other factors. The aid is to be repaid 10 years after graduation.
It is hoped the system will help to secure urgently needed pilots as the popularity of low-cost carriers (LCC) and airlines' demands grow. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's Flight Standards Division, there were 6,389 pilots belonging to Japan's main domestic airlines as of January 2017. In order to meet the central government's goal of having 60 million foreign tourists visit Japan annually by around 2030, Japan will need an estimated 8,500 pilots by then. However, 54 percent of current pilots are aged 45 or older, and are expected to retire in large numbers around 2030.
In expanding their operations, LCCs have already experienced a widespread pilot shortage. Companies including Osaka Prefecture-based Peach Aviation Ltd. and Chiba Prefecture-based Vanilla Air Inc. had to cut at least 2,000 flights in 2014 due to aircraft captains taking sick leave or retiring. Sapporo-based AIRDO Co. also announced a plan to suspend a total of 60 flights in November 2017 and this February due to losing aircraft captains and other pilots to retirement.
As for aviation schools at private universities, Tokai University became the first to offer a course in 2006, with Oberlin, Sojo and the others following its lead. In order to operate a plane, pilot candidates need to acquire a license for each type of aircraft, a commercial pilot license requiring 200 hours of flight experience, among other conditions, as well as an instrument rating to follow the directions of air traffic controllers.
Through the six organizations that created the financial aid system, it is possible to acquire a commercial pilot license and other required certifications, but the cost of training at both domestic and international facilities -- not included in tuition costs -- can run from 9 million to 15 million yen, which is an extremely heavy burden for many students to bear.
"It takes years to raise students to become aircraft captains," says foundation representative and J. F. Oberlin University Chancellor Toyoshi Satow. "Using this system, we would like to cultivate outstanding pilots who fly safely."
Interest-free loan program takes off to aid Japan's future pilots