He is probably reluctant to share as he doesn't want to add to the 'rumour mill'. People hear one thing and then propagate it as fact.
Couple of things. Firstly this is a rumour mill and we are all adding to it. Secondly I can not remember an accident in recent years where very many on here had failed to call things almost spot on from the very beginning. But the poster in this case seems to suggest there are other factors, which surely if more cultural to a particular entity, highlighting the same becomes a matter where time is important?