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Old 30th Mar 2004, 18:57   #1 (permalink)
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Boeing Takes Poke at Airbus' A380 Sales Propjections

Boeing Takes Poke at Airbus' A380 Sales Propjections


Airbus A380
Source: FedEx

MANCHESTER, UK - The Guardian has reported that Boeing's commercial aircraft marketing chief has taken a swipe at Airbus' forecast of 1,138 sales of its super jumbo, 555-passenger A380 transport. Randy Baseler not only stated a "best case" estimate of a mere 320 sales, but added that the consortium might not even sell enough A380s to repay $3.5-billion loaned it by several European governments to launch the program. According to the Guardian Baseler went on to note that Airbus offered customers for the initial 129 A380s a discount of 40 percent on the aircraft's $230-million list price. He also said he doubted Airbus would break even with 250 orders. Forecast International has projected deliveries of 190 of the big A380s from early 2007 through 2013. The new four-engined Airbus model will be powered by Engine Alliance (Pratt & Whitney and GE) GP7200 or Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines, at the customer's choice, and these will each deliver about 80,000 lbst.

Source: Forecast International

Source Date: March 26, 2004

Author: Bill Dane

Posted: 03/30/2004

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Old 30th Mar 2004, 19:12   #2 (permalink)
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Boeing Takes Poke at Airbus' A380 Sales Propjections
Well! Imagine that............
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Old 30th Mar 2004, 19:12   #3 (permalink)
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Yup fully agree, also still agree with Boeing that the Sonic Cruiser is the future, the 767 is the best tanker aircraft, that fly by wire has no future
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Old 30th Mar 2004, 19:21   #4 (permalink)
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Film...."Hobsons Choice"
Quote... A Man of my Importance is in't Local Paper, He's in't "Manchester Guardian" .
What the "World learns tomorrow, Manchester knows today"
NOT my quote, but I'm beggared if I can find the "original" quote
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Old 30th Mar 2004, 20:52   #5 (permalink)
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Wishfull saying.............

What is important isn't what Boeing managers are saying..........but what they are DOING!

Hum..........In fact, what are they doing?
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Old 30th Mar 2004, 22:18   #6 (permalink)
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Build a better 747 and the world will beat a path to your doorway
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Old 31st Mar 2004, 04:30   #7 (permalink)
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May be a little premature to be putting the mockers on the Big bus
I personally can see the market for it, the multi billion dollar question must surely be, will the many 'Boeing Freindly' operators embrace the Big bus to compete in it?. This is the issue that Boeing are desperately trying to force. It has been said many times previous, and will be said many times again, but Boeing have somehow and for whatever reason, allowed themselves to
fall behind the consortium, and in the present climate I ain't convinced that the 7E7 will redress the balance. Airbus are cautiously optimistic that once operational, the A380 stats will further widen the gap, Boeing will hope conversely.

And of course getting back to the Title, well...
He who laughs last . . . . and all that.
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Old 31st Mar 2004, 05:10   #8 (permalink)
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Here's an interesting little rumour...

I heard that when AI were sitting at 45 orders, with a "commit" at 50, the next five ordered were from....


They figured that by ordering the 5 they couldn't lose.

1. 40% discount = huge profit if it's successful and other airlines start a scramble for it. They'll resell and pocket half a billion.

2. 50 orders pushed AI into committing to the project. If it caused them to lose their shirts, then Boeing wins anyway.

Comments, anyone?
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Old 31st Mar 2004, 06:29   #9 (permalink)
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A rumour it is. The 50 break order came from Virgin.
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Old 31st Mar 2004, 06:35   #10 (permalink)
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And how many orders has the 7E7 got on the horizon?

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Old 31st Mar 2004, 07:26   #11 (permalink)
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Never believe what either of those companies tell you when they start going off about their rival, because then they suddenly turn into a bunch of monkeys lobbing t#rds at each other. And frankly Baseler doesn't have the best record for trustworthiness in my book. When Boeing clinched a Singapore Air 777 order by offering to buy and remarket SIA's Airbus A340-300s, he tried to convince me and some colleagues that this was nothing new and Airbus used those sort of tactics all the time. This was not true. There have been other times since then when he's handed out duff information ... Frankly I don't have a lot of faith in the words of marketing reptiles from either camp ...
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Old 31st Mar 2004, 07:55   #12 (permalink)
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Well said Doc, and this of course have nothing to do with Airbus claiming that the projected operating savings on the 7E7 are bogus.

Even used car dealers show more class than Airbooze and Boring.
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Old 31st Mar 2004, 16:33   #13 (permalink)
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Boeing Takes Poke at Airbus' A380 Sales Projections
what else would they do? Sounds like they have a big customer teetering on the edge of making a purchase decision.
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Old 31st Mar 2004, 18:58   #14 (permalink)

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the consortium might not even sell enough A380s to repay $3.5-billion loaned it by several European governments to launch the program
Hmm. Another sideswipe at perceived European company subsidy. A bit rich coming from one of the biggest defence contractors in the US.

We all know about inflated defence contracts - I bet Boeing have pocketed a lot more than $3.5bn in that kind of "indirect" government subsidy, eh?

Of course EADS must get it as well - but people who live in glass houses etc etc.

I think PAXboy has hit the ol' nail on the head!
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Old 1st Apr 2004, 05:18   #15 (permalink)
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Ever read "The Sporty Game" by John Newhouse? Printed by Alfred Knopf in 1982.
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Old 1st Apr 2004, 07:39   #16 (permalink)
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The quote that I remember - since a child - as a Mancunian who was forceably deported to London by his parents - was

"What Manchester does today, London thinks tomorrow"
But then I just might be a little biased. ******* if I can remember who its from though, as its NOT in my copy of the ODQ (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations).

What's in a NAME .... Airbus - Boeing .... As long as it fly's that's what really counts, and if its fun into the bargain, that's just great.
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Old 1st Apr 2004, 12:24   #17 (permalink)
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I agree with PAXboy, what else are they going to do??

Boeing is running and screaming scared. Their output is at an all time low, the 747 line in grinding painfully to a halt (in terms of pax version sales) and according to their own websit they sold MINUS ONE 757 last year.

The 767 line is only being kept afloat by the defence tanker contract which I think we all know - was a dead-cert.

I fear Boeings lack of innovation over the last decade has left it in a very precarious position.

As for the 7E7....is this their Last, Best Hope for the future??

My opinion is that the 7E7 may well be the primarily produced civil Boeing model for the next 20 years. It looks very good on the books especially for the Charters looking for a replacement for the 767 and 757.

But so far as its huge family of aircraft.......well I fear that we will soon see a few deaths in said family.

The coughs can be heard from the 767(civil), 747(pax)already and even the Jeuvenile 777 seems to be under the weather re: future sales at the moment.

The decine in their large aircraft sales will probably result in Boeing turning to its defence contracts for its future.

I sincerely hope that Boeing continues to produce aircraft of quality for the civil market........

......But the writing is on the wall. The A380 flies in Jan 2005. No-one can deny that the A380 will be successful, if not immediately, then within 5-10 years. All the market indicators point to that very conclusion. The skies are not getting any clearer(traffic wise) and the airports are not getting any bigger - ultimately if AI is the only player offering a financially viable product (seat mile costs) then the financially accountable airlines will be buying them.

Possibly Sad but dissapointingly probable.....
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Old 3rd Apr 2004, 03:26   #18 (permalink)
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You don't see any A340's being operated by US carriers. Boeing thinks that, if it's not going to happen there, it's not going to happen anywhere else but, this philosophy is obviously flawed. The 340 has made it's mark in the world and I am sure the 380 will do the same thing. Success favours the brave! and I think the 380 will endow it's operators with a sense of awe, not seen since the days of the Drooped Nosed Beast from Bristol.
Lets hope that this goliath will appeal to the madding crowd and not just the financial elite.
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