CAT
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Prediction a few years ago was more and much more severe turbulence. North Atlantic routes were specially mentioned. Would be interesting to hear from 'frequent flyers' on those to find out if they 'feel' a difference or trend.
As far as i know there was some research in the past but not really further developed then. The 'wet' is easier than the 'dry'. Lidar was on the longlist. Range an issue.
Have not heard about a breakthrough new idea yet, for example on CAT. Happens i have an idea myself, but wont spend much time on that, market is not ready yet for that kind of solution. In that respect, may sound weird, it is interesting to follow the serious events around Katrina... Irma,Jose,Maria, ... to find out what will trigger decision making.
As far as i know there was some research in the past but not really further developed then. The 'wet' is easier than the 'dry'. Lidar was on the longlist. Range an issue.
Have not heard about a breakthrough new idea yet, for example on CAT. Happens i have an idea myself, but wont spend much time on that, market is not ready yet for that kind of solution. In that respect, may sound weird, it is interesting to follow the serious events around Katrina... Irma,Jose,Maria, ... to find out what will trigger decision making.
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I can't say that I have experienced a lot more severe turbulence. I have experienced seatbelt lights that go on and remain on for hours of smooth flight 
However, there may be non-meteorological reasons for more turbulence and the occasional severe turbulence. RVSM and flight at Opposite Direction Levels are used to send blocks of traffic ("sausage" tm NATS) across the Atlantic all on Mach no. restrictions, and can put you into the turbulent wake of an aircraft ahead and above - and keep you there for the entire flight. We have also all seen what can happen with a stable vortex from the A380 drifting waiting for someone to fly into it.
The good news for the Atlantic at least is that around 2025 the NAT OTS is being retired and instead it will be 'business trajectories' for all. That may cause some extra work for your dispatchers and your flight planning systems will need to be able to provide an optimized flight plan track, level and speed rather than defaulting to Track C. But if you are not flying in trail in an OTS track then I would expect the continuous chop from the wake of the aircraft ahead to become a thing of the past.
However, there may be non-meteorological reasons for more turbulence and the occasional severe turbulence. RVSM and flight at Opposite Direction Levels are used to send blocks of traffic ("sausage" tm NATS) across the Atlantic all on Mach no. restrictions, and can put you into the turbulent wake of an aircraft ahead and above - and keep you there for the entire flight. We have also all seen what can happen with a stable vortex from the A380 drifting waiting for someone to fly into it.
The good news for the Atlantic at least is that around 2025 the NAT OTS is being retired and instead it will be 'business trajectories' for all. That may cause some extra work for your dispatchers and your flight planning systems will need to be able to provide an optimized flight plan track, level and speed rather than defaulting to Track C. But if you are not flying in trail in an OTS track then I would expect the continuous chop from the wake of the aircraft ahead to become a thing of the past.
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@Ian W ... Turbulence that i referred to was weather trend expectation/prediction only. So your 'wake surfing' 
will have to be studied in-parallel to that.
If the weather trend expectation's worst case would become true it would become in different game. It would require more flexible navigation (the foundation of which is developing all the time ... as you point out). But may also require operational/technological changes that are not yet (as far as i know) widely discussed today.
will have to be studied in-parallel to that. If the weather trend expectation's worst case would become true it would become in different game. It would require more flexible navigation (the foundation of which is developing all the time ... as you point out). But may also require operational/technological changes that are not yet (as far as i know) widely discussed today.
RVSM and flight at Opposite Direction Levels are used to send blocks of traffic ("sausage" tm NATS) across the Atlantic all on Mach no. restrictions, and can put you into the turbulent wake of an aircraft ahead and above - and keep you there for the entire flight. We have also all seen what can happen with a stable vortex from the A380 drifting waiting for someone to fly into it.
The good news for the Atlantic at least is that around 2025 the NAT OTS is being retired and instead it will be 'business trajectories' for all. That may cause some extra work for your dispatchers and your flight planning systems will need to be able to provide an optimized flight plan track, level and speed rather than defaulting to Track C. But if you are not flying in trail in an OTS track then I would expect the continuous chop from the wake of the aircraft ahead to become a thing of the past.
The good news for the Atlantic at least is that around 2025 the NAT OTS is being retired and instead it will be 'business trajectories' for all. That may cause some extra work for your dispatchers and your flight planning systems will need to be able to provide an optimized flight plan track, level and speed rather than defaulting to Track C. But if you are not flying in trail in an OTS track then I would expect the continuous chop from the wake of the aircraft ahead to become a thing of the past.
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CAT detection
4greens
got the idea that every so often some "wise" men come to the idea to spend some money and time in that special field.
A0283
Yes correct there was a bunch of research spend into a working LIDAR based Turbulence Detection system. Had the chance to do some minor consulting work for one of the real specialists in a Munich based Think Tank and High Tech Company back in the early 90īs on a LIDAR sytem application.
Initially intended as a ground based system at airports, with a later development for an airborne version.
The system was demonstrated working on the 1994 ILA at Berlin. I lost track thereafter and I am not sure if a planned field test run at FRA or MUC was ever conducted.
From talks with the involved scientist I remember that at about the same time scientists in the US were working on a similar system. Havenīt heard from them either !!
As indicated the problem mainly sticks in the difference between "wet" and "dry" environment.
got the idea that every so often some "wise" men come to the idea to spend some money and time in that special field.
A0283
Yes correct there was a bunch of research spend into a working LIDAR based Turbulence Detection system. Had the chance to do some minor consulting work for one of the real specialists in a Munich based Think Tank and High Tech Company back in the early 90īs on a LIDAR sytem application.
Initially intended as a ground based system at airports, with a later development for an airborne version.
The system was demonstrated working on the 1994 ILA at Berlin. I lost track thereafter and I am not sure if a planned field test run at FRA or MUC was ever conducted.
From talks with the involved scientist I remember that at about the same time scientists in the US were working on a similar system. Havenīt heard from them either !!
As indicated the problem mainly sticks in the difference between "wet" and "dry" environment.
Last edited by Annex14; 19th Sep 2017 at 19:32. Reason: missing letter
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From my experience, the area more or less around Gander, NF seems to consistently bring the seat belt lights on with a few bumps for a while. It appears to work the same way either east or westbound. YMMV.
Far from the worse turbulence I've experienced, however. That would be over Iraq, circa 2003 or so. And probably a few other times. But I'm getting old and the memory is getting feeble...
Far from the worse turbulence I've experienced, however. That would be over Iraq, circa 2003 or so. And probably a few other times. But I'm getting old and the memory is getting feeble...
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Just read that Boeing are doing some research on l@ser technology to warn of turbulent air ahead. This could save a lot of damage and injuries to pax.
As indicated the problem mainly sticks in the difference between "wet" and "dry" environment.
Too wet, too dry, to few particulates, too many particulates, all the same result...it is not a system that could ever be used in an operational environment. (per National Academy of Sciences report in 2000)
There is good data coming from a system that collectively shares the AMDAR data from aircraft in the system, processed and distributed back to the aircraft in the system, giving a much better idea of what is up ahead, and at what levels.
