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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

SgtBundy 17th Mar 2014 14:13

Quote:

If something remotely viable and simple to implement could have been done, it would have been done by now. The Tomnod marketing excercise was rolled out in a couple of days.

Fact of the matter is that implementing and debugging algorithms takes some time and effort... and therefore manpower and money.

Add onto that you're expecting satellite companies to retask their satellites for a vast area of fresh imagery..... who's going to pay for that on top of the development manpower for your magic algorithm.

Your optimism and faith in existing "simple algorithms" is commendable, but that's all it is.
Tomnod was setup in the past for some Typhoon Haiyan and they were able to source/request fresh satellite passes from I believe the day it disappeared, seeing as they own the satellites. Their current effort is re-using an existing platform for a fresh task. Marketing maybe, but hardly a futile effort when at the time they were looking for a crash site, they had the satellites to do it and the technology platform to deliver it.

No doubt to yield good results it takes time to tune and improve the methods. All I am saying is that at a high level the effort to discount large sections of ocean appears trivial, and as I said I would expect this is probably something they are smart enough to have done already. If you are talking about recognizing an aircraft or specific aircraft from this imagery, yes that would be a significant effort.

Elastic infrastructure is easily available reasonably cheaply so I don't think some of what I suggested is that far fetched.

Alloyboobtube 17th Mar 2014 14:14

Lack of signal means it could also be in 20,000 ft of water.
Could it have been landed gently in the Indian Ocean with outflow valves open and a gentle sink to the bottom intact..

The Bullwinkle 17th Mar 2014 14:15

Quote:

One thread will be for posts suggesting that terrorists having hijacked the plane to land it or to plunder its cargo and then relaunch the plane as a bomb.
A second thread will be for the pilot suicide or "crash the plane where it will never be found" theory.
A third will be for the mechanical malfunction theory.
A fourth thread will be for a discussion of Search and Rescue operations.
And a final thread will be for posters who have not adequately read the previous posts but who want to pose a question to those that have.
How about a sixth thread for those who wish to wait till the aircraft is found and the real answer is discovered?

Just a thought!

geneman 17th Mar 2014 14:16

Identification of ping origin.
 
Simple question:
Does a ping transmitted from an aircraft and received by a geostationary satellite UNEQUIVOCALLY identify the aircraft, in the absence of any other data?

(Sorry if this has already been covered...but I couldn't find an answer to this fundamental question.)

SLFplatine 17th Mar 2014 14:17

I think we can really forget the 'Uighur terrorist' angle -their ops expertise extends no further than hand held knives and crude VBIEDs that generally do not work as intended.

rgbrock1 17th Mar 2014 14:24

Nortwest Orient Airlines flight 2501 was a DC-4 aircraft which was flying between NYC and Seattle, WA in June 1950, carrying 55 passengers and 3 crew members.

Last contact with the aircraft was when it was flying over Lake Michigan at 3,000 ft. She abruptly disappeared from radar and the presumed wreckage was never located. This despite the use of sonar and dragging the bottom of Lake Michigan with trawlers.

Even with modern technology in use (side-scan sonor, etc) the presumed wreckage was never found.

Lord Spandex Masher 17th Mar 2014 14:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by overthewing (Post 8383145)
And I don't think TCAS on /transponder off makes you visible to other a/c? Does it?

Like others have said you can't have one without the other. So for you to be able to track an other aircraft using TCAS the other aircraft will be able to see you, as will all the other SSR receivers in the area.

Buy like you said, I'd would be pot luck as to which aircraft you came across, there's no info from TCAS except height and to visually identify the type and the airline you need to be within about ten miles at the most.

oldoberon 17th Mar 2014 14:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 8383141)
If SQ68 had no message to send, the acars would remain silent and the satcom would ping. There is definitely no identifiable data in a ping

EDIT: If data is to be sent either way then it will be preceded by a connection request (handshake) and yes that has identifiable date of course, I understood we were dealing with a ping.

As you have only just joined the thread let me bring you up to speed as I understand it.

yes they are pings

MAS did not subscribe to acars on satcom

MAS adverts say 1st class has sat phones

PAx, engineers etc say this aircraft does not have sat phones

It does not use the newer satcom aerials which were subject to AD for corrosion but has the older two aerials.

"established" opinion and understanding over the read says that it was obviously on and pings include the unique airframe code as that is embedded into all data transmitting devices (If that is not the case there will be loads of aircraft in a similar config where satcom keeps pinging with unidentified sources.)

Not being rude can you tell us what your filed is to make your statement so emphatically, if it is sat comms pls read my post #5173 page 259

oldoberon 17th Mar 2014 14:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by skytrax (Post 8383157)
Guys, forget about robbery scenarios and all that nonsense. Forget about the cargo, tones of gold etc that might have been on board.
Nobody in the right mind and familiar with the aviation field would try something like this because you cannnot get away with something like this. Too complicated to put in practise such thing.

I personally belive this was planned but for completly other reasons which are yet to be revealed. Hopefully we will get to know one day. Without finding the plane and black boxes information is very limited.

in the 60's we would have said you can't rob a train carrying 2m but Biggsy and co did, yes it was less complicated but had you hypothesised that in the 60's the reaction would be the same as yours. WHERE THERE IS A WILL THERE IS A WAY

However I agree your last sentence.

ana1936 17th Mar 2014 14:35

Since the pings are initiiated by the satellite the idea of the pings being from the wong aircraft need some one else to want to pretend to be MH370 for six hours.

rigbyrigz 17th Mar 2014 14:35

SLF: " A turn west from/after IGARI was entered into the active flight plan in the FMS; this is known as the last ACARS report indicated this waypoint change event."

IF this is TRUE and corroborated, it is extremely important, since said "last ACARS rpt" is 1:07
Ongoing events timing, including goodnight signoff, would CLEARLY RULE OUT electro-mechanical mishap, hypoxia as major cause, etc. It would make deliberate human action part of the equation for sure!

I am sure this is obvious to even the non-believers. If someone entered this waypoint request into the FMC in the 30 minutes before the 1:07 automatic (when ON) ACARS report (which listed it in event log) then it is what it is.

SO: Can this SLF quote be substantiated by any source other than "XYZ NEWS says unnamed sources tell them that..." and so forth? (or can a journalist viewing this thread ASK this of PM next chance?)

SO: Does the 40degree flight correction turn tracked by FR24 at IGARI around 1:20, ALSO show on the ACARS? IS it consistent with a pre-programmed LEFT turn? Or would it override the 40degree course correction for Vietnam. Credit to BARREL for raising this confliction.

overthewing 17th Mar 2014 14:36

Quote:

Overthewing, all of the TCAS units I've played with have been integrated with the transponder. Turn the transponder off and you don't have a TCAS, at all, not for receiving or transmitting. Think of TCAS as a type of transponder rather than a separate system.
Thanks for this. Not sure this is relevant to the current thread, but does that mean that your working TCAS becomes inop if you switch the transponder to Standby?

macilrae 17th Mar 2014 14:36

Arcs and pings
 
On the arcs and the pings, the published arc represents points on the earth's surface which are equidistant from the satellite and where the aircraft could be - we understand this was from the last ping received.

If, during its flight, the aircraft had been at some point, other than on the published arc, an earlier ping would have shown this - with a concentric arc of different radius - this would be pretty valuable information giving further hints as to speed and direction e.g. if two arcs an hour apart had almost the same radius then it's pretty likely the aircraft's path would have been substantially along that arc.

Again, if transit times for the earlier pings are available, all such data will surely have been already extracted but, seemingly, not yet published.

Hang Jebat 17th Mar 2014 14:38

Hi Clayne. ARB is correct. It's indeed "Indian Muslim" restaurant. "Mamak" is a colloquial term, a corruption of the South Indian Tamil word, "Maama", which means Uncle. Nevertheless, in M'sia, you would almost certainly say "mamak" instead of "Indian-Muslim" restaurant:)

Mahatma, the pilot is Malay. Which in Malaysia means he is a Muslim. No two ways about it. It is certainly possible he may have Indian blood. M'sia is often touted as being multi-racial. However, in the old days, we actually attempted to be a melting pot of cultures and inter-racial marriages were common. Hence he could be a mixture of Malay, Indian, Chinese, Arab, etc for all we know.

Regarding usage of the words/terms "all right", "roger that", "good night" etc, I can't speak on behalf of M'sian pilots, but it is certainly commonly used here. In my organization, gentle instructions to the chaps I supervise is usually met with an " All right, Boss" response. A more terse order usually elicits a "Roger that, Boss!"
And no, I don't work for the military.

Lastly, plenty of Malaysians, yours truly included, are fervent supporters of the Opposition party. I'm happy to state here that the Oppositon party in M'sia espouses the principles of democracy and equal rights for all Malaysians.
It is certainly not run by a bunch of zealots who would encourage their members to show their affiliations to the party cause by bringing down an aircraft full of innocent people. Or hijack a plane just to vent their anger at court rulings favouring the BN government.

Hope this helps.

Cheers

Eclectic 17th Mar 2014 14:40

The northern route potential land area is immense and a big plane going in fast and vertical only makes a fairly small crater. Also the ELTs wouldn't survive the impact.

This is a 757:

http://www.rense.com/1.imagesH/94_150.jpg

Do this where there are no population and it may never be discovered.

Beanbag 17th Mar 2014 14:40

There must be a finite number of airfields that can receive a 777 with full pax & cargo load, even with low fuel load. It's hardly going to land on a grass strip in the middle of nowhere. So in the unlikely event it's landed in one piece how hard could it be to find?

500N 17th Mar 2014 14:42

Beanbag

The media said over 600 airfields within the range of the 777 !

oldoberon 17th Mar 2014 14:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by litinoveweedle (Post 8383178)
IMHO pings are probably TDMA channel sync or frequency sync bursts. This means, that inside of data, there could be probably two low level identifiers.
1. the HW identifier (something like serial number of your phone (IMEI) or MAC address of you computer)
2. artificial identifier of the connection (which could be correlated with connection information stored previously in time of connection handshake)

There would be no data inside of these burst, as these serve only to SATCOM to keep connection to satellite synced and alive,

I would say that forging data connection on TDMA is possible and it is used for example to intercept GSM connections (man in the middle attack), but this process is definitely not trivial.

I would say, that probability, that these pings were mistakenly from another plane or forged to pretend to be from HM370, is really low.

Good post

yes it was posted earlier about the Imei/mac code principle I like it.

your 2nd point not valid MAS did not use satcom for any data transfer (no contract) used vhf (and perhaps HF)

barrel_owl 17th Mar 2014 14:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by SLFplatine (Post 8383125)
The current 'official' operational theory is this plane was, for lack of a better word, 'stolen' by person or persons unknown who knew what they were doing (disable transponder, ACARS, etc., took flight path to avoid radar detection) and who had meticulously planned the operation in advance. A turn west from/after IGARI was entered into the active flight plan in the FMS; this is known as the last ACARS report indicated this waypoint change event.
So, how come the highly knowledgeable careful planning 'perp(s)' left this big fat clue? -yes, perhaps the were unaware ACARS would report a waypoint change event however if one has carefully planned this type of operation one would certainly not do anything out of the ordinary before disabling ACARS.
So, again the Q

I dedicated not less than five posts last night trying to explain why it is impossible that VAMPI had been programmed in the FMC as next waypoint after IGARI.
The behavior of the aircraft completely disproves this claim. As anybody else here, I have no clue what the aircraft did after 1:21 MYT, but it is safe to say that BEFORE 1:21 it was still following its original flight plan.

http://www.pprune.org/8381692-post4796.html
http://www.pprune.org/8381648-post4781.html
http://www.pprune.org/8381726-post4809.html
http://www.pprune.org/8381732-post4810.html
http://www.pprune.org/8381954-post4864.html

Please note that this "report" comes from Daily Mail and ABC News, both quoting unverified and unverifiable sources.

cavortingcheetah 17th Mar 2014 14:49

It's not the potential existence of a landing field based upon length that should be concerning anyone as much as the location of a runway based upon the take off requirement for a heavily loaded machine.


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