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Old 22nd Dec 2016, 10:05   #1001 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
AerocatS2A :

Trial by You tube !
Well " Comparison is not reason " always hammered my philosophy teacher in high school.
It's a datapoint and a thorough investigation would take it in to account and give it the weight it deserves. For us plebs on the sideline we don't have access to much of the information and so perhaps we give the datapoint too much weight, or maybe we are right on the money.

I think it is normal for an investigative team to ask "what normally happens in this operation?" IF the marginal take-off by the previous Aerosucre flight is what normally happens then it is not very surprising that they eventually crashed.

Likewise we might ask "how does LaMia normally operate their long distance flights?" If it is found that there was a culture of eating into their reserve or not planning for any reserve at all then again, not very surprising that they eventually run out of fuel.

I don't have an opinion on what Lemme is doing. The only thing I thought when I read some of his material is that he has too much time on his hands, but I understand that people develop an interest in things that don't interest me to the same extent.

I would rather see someone put some critical thought into their amateur sleuthing the way Lemme is, rather than the useless dreck that the more ignorant put out.

For what it's worth I think the comments about objectivity are the wrong way around. Lemme wants to investigate as much as he can with publicly available information and doesn't want the official report to bias his own work, in other words, he's not worried about the official report being objective, he's worried about his own objectivity being biased by knowledge of the final report. Basically he doesn't want to know the answer before working it out for himself.

Another poster commented that Lemme's interest is academic, and I think it is exactly that, a very academic interest in accident investigation via publicly available information.
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Old 22nd Dec 2016, 10:56   #1002 (permalink)
 
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I think we're all familiar with the 'whitewash'. It appears to me that Lemme thinks (note the language construction) that by using new sources of 'independent' data he can construct a narrative that makes a whitewash less likely, or easier to invalidate, than was possible before the advent of services such as FR24. I don't have the knowledge to judge whether or not he's made a success of it.
Sorry, but I strongly disagree with that point of view. Lemme's narrative, based as it is on incomplete data, is more likely to lead to cries of whitewash when the official report comes out, if it contains anything that doesn't agree with his analysis.

That isn't a direct criticism of his work but an observation on the nature of the internet. Nobody wants to wait, people want "facts" now, flawed or otherwise. Lemme's narrative is already being read by some as "the only true story" and so anything that comes later contradicting this received wisdom will be seen as a cover up.

Now where do I pick up my old git t-shirt?
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Old 22nd Dec 2016, 19:15   #1003 (permalink)
 
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Don`t know how to put one of those thumbs up symbols, so instead I say spot on to alemaobaiano.
The "true story", if it ever comes to light will not be found in the mangled wreckage, the debris lying on the mountainside nor the radio signals and radar traces. And if it did, am certain it will be of Biblical age and proportion. Much like the Mt.Erebus and the Ermenonville Turkish DC10 disasters.

Alemaobaino could you spare one of your old git-t shirts, mines a bit threadbare.
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Old 22nd Dec 2016, 19:21   #1004 (permalink)
 
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Hey whats all this talk of whitewash? Thats the stuff of Politics, Governments, Enquiries etc, dedicated to finding someone, anyone, on whom to pin the blame. I dont ever recall hearing that said of an ICAO-mandated accident report only dedicated to digging out the facts and causes and coming to meaningful conclusions from which something can be learned. I am expecting Colombia's reports to be the usual high standard.
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Old 22nd Dec 2016, 19:39   #1005 (permalink)
 
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Waiting...

Quote:
Originally Posted by portmanteau View Post
Preliminary report will be published on December 22 says Director of Colombia Civav.
Now.? Looking.. 😳
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 21:27   #1006 (permalink)
 
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It's all gone very quiet since that initial report was due out.
Any reason given for the delay ?
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 09:04   #1007 (permalink)
 
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Re Initial Report
Their hands must be rather full now. The place to find it when it does appear is: http://www.aerocivil.gov.co/autorida...ccidentes-2016.
But don't hold your breath; the latest IR for 2016 is for an accident that happened on 15 September.
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 15:32   #1008 (permalink)


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Live: Aerocivil press conference with investigation update of the LaMia crash near Medellin #Chapecoense :
https://t.co/m6tOIjOfMB
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 15:51   #1009 (permalink)
 
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Bolivia closed its official investigation last week, issuing a final report last Tuesday and naming the pilot and company as directly responsible for the crash. Functionaries of AASANA and DGAC plus the flight dispatcher now in Brazil also received criticism and blame. There have been no public findings into the role of the highest authorities in Bolivian aviation (e.g. at ministerial level), in terms of how LaMia was allowed to continue to operate in light of information which has emerged since the date of the accident. In effect, the Bolivian government has sought to distance itself from any potential malpractice on its own part and close down the story. The ruling party (MAS) are currently under pressure over mismanagement of water resources and infrastructure which has led to water rationing here in La Paz. MAS is at the same time seeking to overturn the result of a February referendum which prevents incumbent President Evo Morales from standing for an (unconstitutional) fourth term. (This is the same President who claimed not to be aware of LaMia the airline, until footage emerged showing him recently posing for pictures onboard the incident aircraft in Rurrenabaque.) Opposition figures have conversely sought to establish and publicise links between LaMia and the Morales administration. Against this political backdrop, it should be of no surprise that the Bolivian government would rather that this story disappear.

The swift release of Bolivia's official final report led to criticism from Colombia's Director of Civil Aviation, who has stated that Bolivia has neither the faculty ("facultad", which can be translated as either authority or ability) nor competence to come up with such investigation findings. This in turn led to a statement from Bolivia's Vice President at a press breakfast on Christmas Eve that the Bolivian investigation report would serve as a contribution to the overall Colombian investigation, and that the final word regarding any immediate and underlying causes of the accident remains with Colombia.

Chapecoense de Brasil - Bolivia: Investigación a Lamia es "contribución" a Colombia | Latinoamérica | Mundo | El Comercio Peru

Chapecoense de Brasil: "Lamia y piloto son responsables de la tragedia" | Latinoamérica | Mundo | El Comercio Peru

Colombia tiene la última palabra sobre el accidente - Diario Pagina Siete
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 17:12   #1010 (permalink)
 
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G1 have a brief rundown on the press conference given today by the Colombian authorities.

Avião da Chapecoense viajou com pouco combustível e excesso de peso, dizem investigadores | Mundo | G1

Overweight, crew were aware of the fuel situation, discussed two refuelling stops, and didn't advise ATC even with two engines out.
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 17:31   #1011 (permalink)
 
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This article was published in the Brazilian press an hour ago:

Colômbia responsabiliza órgão do governo boliviano por autorização irregular a voo da LaMia

Key points include:

- Colombia's Secretary of Air Safety, Colonel Fredy Bonilla, holds AASANA (noted to be a Bolivian government body) responsible for the crash due to irregular authorisation of the flight plan.

- LaMia did not hold proper authorisation to carry passengers nor market national or international flights.

- Colombian civil aviation authorities have stated that according to the Chicago Convention they have sole responsibility for investigating the accident. This may be in response to the Bolivian "final report" already released.

- The flight was over permitted weight, in addition to Medellin being at the limit of its fuel.

- CVR evidence reveals that the pilots discussed making a refuelling stop in Leticia or Bogota. Colonel Bonilla states that the pilots were aware that fuel on board was neither adequate nor sufficient.

A comment on the article notes that alternative refuelling stops were also available in Brazil in Rio Branco and Tabatinga (the latter being right next to Leticia - the two are effectively one town with an international border down the middle).
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 17:51   #1012 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alemaobaiano View Post
Overweight, crew were aware of the fuel situation, discussed two refuelling stops, and didn't advise ATC even with two engines out.
The report confirms that the aircraft departed 500 kg overweight.

That is not considered a primary factor ("fator prioritário") affecting the outcome, though the previously posted RJ85 payload-range curve suggests that would have knocked about 20 nm off the range, so who knows ...
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 18:29   #1013 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by portmanteau View Post
Hey whats all this talk of whitewash? Thats the stuff of Politics, Governments, Enquiries etc, dedicated to finding someone, anyone, on whom to pin the blame. I dont ever recall hearing that said of an ICAO-mandated accident report only dedicated to digging out the facts and causes and coming to meaningful conclusions from which something can be learned. I am expecting Colombia's reports to be the usual high standard.
I agree. I would be less confident had the plane come down, say, next door in Venezuela, where the administration there would certainly be more sympathetic towards protecting Bolivian government interests, but I have full confidence that the Colombians will come up with a good report. Brazil as key stakeholder and the regional major power also has a big interest in ensuring that contributory factors to the incident are properly identified and good recommendations made.
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 18:43   #1014 (permalink)
 
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The report and a reconstruction of flight and accident including ATC exchanges ( all in Spanish ) :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GXr8zQN6fY
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 19:28   #1015 (permalink)
 
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Not declaring an emergency with engines shutting down on them is just unbelievable. Absolute, utter madness.
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 19:42   #1016 (permalink)
 
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The madness started well before that when they decided not to stop, when they knew fuel was a problem. The rest of the journey was conducted in a state of pure denial, their primary thought probably being "how will we cover this up?"
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Old 26th Dec 2016, 20:33   #1017 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
The report and a reconstruction of flight and accident including ATC exchanges ( all in Spanish ) :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GXr8zQN6fY
thanks @foxcharliep2 - very informative

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Old 26th Dec 2016, 20:53   #1018 (permalink)
 
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a couple of screenshots from near the end of the preso






stills and aerial views of crash site starts here: https://youtu.be/9GXr8zQN6fY?t=23m32s
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Old 27th Dec 2016, 00:33   #1019 (permalink)
 
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Very true atatacs. Madness indeed. Just a lowly PPL myself but I do some legal consulting in my profession of Anesthesiology as an expert witness in malpractice. Hubris can be a real problem in Medicine as well as Aviation. IMHO these "cowboys" illustrated classic normalization of deviance: they got away with skeletal flight planning by being careless/reckless with fuel margins many times in the past on similar routing. The added "prestige" of taking this team and perhaps extra weight made for an even greater recklessness on their part. Utter madness and completely preventable.
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Old 27th Dec 2016, 00:56   #1020 (permalink)
 
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Quote from the Aviation Herald with link:
Crash: LAMIA Bolivia RJ85 near Medellin on Nov 28th 2016, electrical problems, no fuel, impact with terrain

On Dec 26th 2016 Colombia's Aerocivil introduced their preliminary report in a press conference (the preliminary report itsself was not released) stating, that the aircraft did not show any technical fault, there was no sabotage or suicide attempt. The evidence revealed the aircraft suffered fuel exhaustion. The crew was aware of their fuel status and considered fuel stops in Leticia (Bolivia) and Bogota (Colombia), however did not decide to perform such stops. The aircraft was operated at a takeoff weight of 42,148 kg, maximum takeoff weight permitted 41,800 kg, this takeoff weight was not a factor into the accident however. According to cockpit voice recordings the first officer and observer repeatedly calculated the fuel and considered a fuel stop in Leticia but did not follow up as they did not know whether the airport was open. The aircraft features a system that activates an alarm if the fuel remaining was no longer sufficient for more than 20 minutes of flight, however, this system did not activate. 10 minutes prior to impact the crew requested priority for landing and selected the first stage of flaps. The aircraft began to turn and descend without ATC clearance causing separation problem with the other aircraft in the hold. 6 minutes prior to impact engine #3 is the first to flame out, 5 minutes prior to impact the crew selected the next stage of flaps and selected the landing gear down, the crew advised ATC ground services were not needed. Engine #2 fails. 3:45 minutes prior to impact all engines had flamed out, the aircraft was without power, the APU also failed due to lack of fuel. 2 minutes prior to impact the crew declared emergency reporting total power failure. The aircraft impacted Cerro Gordo at a speed of 230km/h below 9000 feet when they needed to be above 10,000 feet to safely cross the mountain.

Seems like Lemme have been pretty spot on with his "investigation". Crew selected both flaps and gear down before the last engine flamed out. The last engine flamed out 3:45 min before impact.
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