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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:13
  #621 (permalink)  
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First of all, if you are not an Airbus pilot you are unfortunately completely unqualified to draw too many conclusions from this tragic accident. If you are an Airbus pilot, you will know how little you know at this point, and are probably wisely remaining silent. Airbus pilots, and particularly those from the training community, will know the potential issues, but until the CVR and FDR have been recovered will say very little indeed.

My only input to my fellow professionals would be to note that this thread is being read by concerned members of the public, including those who are devastated at the loss of their loved ones and who are desperate for answers. Uninformed conjecture can only lead to further agony for them, and we must therefore be extremely cautious in offering opinions without a basis in fact. The thread is also read by journalists and media professionals who are desperate for a 'scoop' and the inside track no one else has. These people will gladly publish half truths and partial information that do no favours to anyone. I would thus encourage enormous self-discipline and the wisdom to remain silent until more is known.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:20
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hull break up in air

I write emergency plans for transport disasters and conduct response exercises and analysis, and have worked with transport companies and authorities on terminal events. I am not a pilot or other aircrew.

The chilling images of bodies minus clothing and with limbs intact seems to indicate structural break up in the air at height (as in Lockerbie).

Standard forensic experience is that the decay process in a corpse will create enough gas in internal organs to overcome the normal natural negative buoyancy after about three days, depending mainly on water temperature. This, sadly, appears to be in line with today's discoveries, and the recovery and identification of bodies is a small comfort of importance to victims' families. Spare a thought for the recovery crews in their line of duty.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:27
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Does anyone know if this AirAsia Airbus had Thales pitot tubes that were scheduled to be replaced by Goodrich pitot tubes? I believe Air France had been replacing these. Just wondering; it's my understanding, per the final Air France 447 BEA report (Page 198), that pitot tubes played a part in the crash of this aircraft:

Thus, the accident resulted from the following succession of events:
Temporary inconsistency between the airspeed measurements, likely following
the obstruction of the Pitot probes by ice crystals that, in particular, caused the
autopilot disconnection and the reconfiguration to alternate law;
5 - CHANGES MADE FOLLOWING THE ACCIDENT
5.1 Air France
5.1.1 Aeroplane maintenance and equipment


A330/A340 Pitot probes
ˆ
Acceleration in the replacement of Thales “AA” probes by “BA” probes, initiated
on 27 April 2009. By 11 June 2009, all the probes had been replaced.
ˆ
Following an Airworthiness Directive issued by EASA, replacement of Thales “BA”
probes by Goodrich probes in positions 1 and 3, from 4 to 7 August 2009.
ˆ
Air France internal decision: replacement of Thales “BA” probes by Goodrich
probes in position 2, from 18 January to 8 February 2010.
. . . and, an excerpt from a Wall Street Journal article published 12/28/14:

After Flight 447, European air-safety regulators issued safety directives mandating replacement and upgrades of pitot-tube systems on Airbus jetliners, including A320s. In October, they issued a new mandate giving operators two years to make certain modifications, because initial replacement parts didn’t demonstrate the necessary “level of robustness to withstand high-altitude ice crystals.” It isn’t clear whether the AirAsia aircraft was covered by that mandate.
The link to the BEA Final Air France 447 report is: http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp...p090601.en.pdf

The link to the WSJ article is: Missing AirAsia Flight Stirs Old Debates Over Safety - WSJ (You may not be able to read the entire WSJ article, since they like to try and "encourage" you to subscribe to their online editions. Therefore, I included the relevant paragraph information.)

My apologies if this has been discussed on this thread before. I tried searching for it, but couldn't find it.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:28
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Originally Posted by John Hill
With the exception of VDL Mode 4 (which I dont think is in common use?) what systems are there that provide a means for the pilot of one aircraft to be aware of the position of others aircraft near his?
A slightly more explicit response than PeeKay4

TCAS will give information on aircraft that are potential threats to the safety of your aircraft. The picture is somewhat distorted but the algorithms for alerting are excellent.

ADS-B (In) is the ability for an aircraft to receive and display the ADS-B transmissions of other aircraft. This is displayed in the cockpit on a display rather obviously called a Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI). This is a GPS map type display with the other aircraft shown on it with the ADS-B information that is available. CDTI is common in many small GA aircraft but airline operators are less keen to spend the money. (If you want to read about the development of CDTI do an internet search on CAPSTONE CDTI ADS Capstone was an FAA project in Alaska looking into the use of CDTI. The search though will get you more information on other research and even EUROCONTROL aspects. I have flown with CDTI and the only drawback seemed to be (for GA) that there is a tendency to look down at the CDTI rather than out and as equipage in the open airspace with GA is not ubiquitous there could be aircraft out there that are not on your display while you are head down.

ADS-B (IN) that would allow CDTI in commercial aircraft cockpits is likely to be mandated in around 5 years or so for 5 years later than that. It may be supported by 'Aircraft Access to SWIM' (System Wide Information Management) that (amongst a lot of other things) could also provide the flight data of the other aircraft including its future trajectory rather than a prediction based on its last few seconds flight.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:35
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The whole tracking issue is a red herring in this case. They HAD tracking to within 6 miles of the crash site. They had RADAR tracking to within 5 minutes of the apparent crash time, and ADS tracking for a minute after that! How much more tracking do you think we need, can afford, or will do anything useful?

IMO, it was the delay -- 50 minutes! -- in the response to the LOSS of tracking that caused the delay in the start of the search. In this case, that delay did not cause any further loss of life or property, but might cause additional loss in other types of mishaps.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:36
  #626 (permalink)  
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crHedBngr - are you and Airbus pilot? Every Airbus pilot knows the information to which you are referring, but you will note that no one is writing it but you - draw your own conclusions. Just say nothing and be thought a fool rather than open your mouth and remove all doubt. This is really not helpful input at this stage - think of the people who could be reading your comments.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:41
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"airline with balls"

Last year I was through Juanda in Surabaya on a couple of Garuda flights. I was taken aback by the Air Asia advertising posters in the terminal which had a strap line "Air Asia - the airline with balls". I am led to believe that was an oblique reference to the football club QPR, in which the Air Asia CEO has an interest, but I was immediately put off by it and thankful I was on Garuda.


There has been chat on here about the culture of Asian airlines in general, but that strap line sounds a bit iffy to me and perhaps "just" an indication of attitude in management?
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:42
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Quote:
Given the heavy automation in the systems, the question is, how does being suddenly thrown into a situation where the automation *isn't* working as expected and where you have to rapidly figure out both the technical and human elements of it, something which makes these sorts of mistakes more likely than they should be?

Quote:
Agreed but if that point can be reached, surely there must be some 'emergency red button' which just disables all automation and "hands back manual control" from whatever law or state the system is currently in/resets all warnings.

this is the sequence of auto flight technology development;

1) First a basic airplane with flight control cables routed to the control surfaces.
2) autopilots developed that have servos that move the cables.

economy drives industry to design aircraft that fly closer in to the edges of the stability envelope, enter stability augmentation systems or yaw dampers.

3) autopilots grow in sophistication with the capability to control aircraft in all three axis and control power, follow navigation signals and move the rudder in response to yaw damper demands.


Up to this point there was a "big red Button." The autopilot, "george" could be turned off and the pilot knew that he was controlling the aircraft control surfaces with no other input. The pilots control columns were linked so that movement of either moves the control surfaces and the other control column. Also the same is true of the autopilot. When george was flying, the control columns/control wheels/ throttles moved and gave feedback and reference as to just what george was up to.

then economy drives industry to want to eliminate the cost of routing control cables/rods and hydraulic power to each flight control, enter fly-by-wire.


4) An autoflight/flight control computer/autopilot system must always fly the fly-by-wire aircraft. there is no manual control to back up to. Worse than that, the autoflight system has various degraded modes that it can step down to.

This new type of aircraft control is not so bad in the event of simple single malfunctions. The problem is that if the pilots become complacent and fail to be up to the minute with what is going on with the performance of the airplane and then encounter a malfunction as in AF447, they are in a bad situation and starting from behind. They must determine which indications are accurate and at what level the autoflight system is operating. Combine this with "stick and rudder" skills that atrophy with continued use of autoflight and rare use of manual flight, the problem is compounded again.

Yes, pilots made bad airmanship mistakes in airplanes with control cables. A DC-10 crossing the Atlantic using vertical speed control to climb to a higher altitude stalled and fell thousands of feet breaking in and out of stall because the pilot flying did not know to unload the wing to recover. The other pilot took over, recovered and the flight landed in Miami with a damaged elevator.

Worse, pilots do not always have the most up to date information on the technology they are operating. Prior to the AirBus crash at New York Kennedy, pilots were taught that below maneuvering speed they could safely fully deflect any control surface. It was not common knowledge that this was not true in the case of sudden control reversal. It is alleged that a sudden abrupt reversal of the rudder snapped off the vertical stabilizer.

The day will soon be upon us when we have pilots who have never flown an aircraft that had fully manual controls. We will develop aircraft, avionics and procedures to deal with this and keep flying as safely as possible but the old axiom applies;

"Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:46
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Count of Monte Bisto.....
I would thus encourage enormous self-discipline and the wisdom to remain silent until more is known.
As a high time 320 driver myself your post was well said Sir!
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:51
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Last year I was through Juanda in Surabaya on a couple of Garuda flights. I was taken aback by the Air Asia advertising posters in the terminal which had a strap line "Air Asia - the airline with balls". I am led to believe that was an oblique reference to the football club QPR, in which the Air Asia CEO has an interest, but I was immediately put off by it and thankful I was on Garuda.


There has been chat on here about the culture of Asian airlines in general, but that strap line sounds a bit iffy to me and perhaps "just" an indication of attitude in management?
I have been a passanger on Air Asia flights roughly monthly for the most of 2014 due to frequent trips between Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur. There is a lot to dislike about them (if you want to drink water you have to pay). But they do have a better safety record than most other carriers in the region (iirc this is their first major disaster).

No major complaints as a passenger, other than the recommendation to pre-book meals.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 21:00
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Originally Posted by phiggsbroadband
There are conventions used in the measurement of weather radar reflectivity...
Quote...
When describing weather radar returns, pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers will typically refer to three return levels:[20]
  • level 1 corresponds to a green radar return, indicating usually light precipitation and little to no turbulence, leading to a possibility of reduced visibility.
  • level 2 corresponds to a yellow radar return, indicating moderate precipitation, leading to the possibility of very low visibility, moderate turbulence and an uncomfortable ride for aircraft passengers.
  • level 3 corresponds to a red radar return, indicating heavy precipitation, leading to the possibility of thunderstorms and severe turbulence and structural damage to the aircraft.
Aircraft will try to avoid level 2 returns when possible, and will always avoid level 3 unless they are specially-designed research aircraft.


This flight and flight-plan took the aircraft through Yellow and Red areas on the weather radar plot, and contact was lost as it approached the second red area, almost to within a mile.
Those are the known facts...
Your post is correct - but pilots need to be aware that the radar is showing reflectivity from rain not turbulence. (I realize with some I am teaching grandmother to suck eggs here) Apart from some military aircraft with funny paint-jobs most aircraft can manage rain quite successfully. It is turbulence and hail that need to be avoided. Unfortunately, as posts on this thread have noted, rain reflections and turbulence are not always together, indeed extreme turbulence can be found between the radar reflections. Not only that but hail can have a significant 'throw' out of the top of storms and that is why the FAA advise 20 NM separation from large Cb. That is not always possible of course places like the area in question in this post, South Texas and Florida would be unflyable if 20NM were always taken. But be extremely cautious of a natural assumption that red is where the danger is, it is just the area of strongest radar returns. So 3D radar may look everso pretty and really wow the management, but it may not be the tool required to avoid dangerous turbulence, that may be (to the dismay of management) training and experience of the crew.

As always experience is a hard teacher as the exam comes before the lesson. So try to learn from experienced pilots who have had the exam, passed it and learned from it.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 21:25
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Originally Posted by Ian W
Check their new connectivity for ATM services SwiftBroadband - Inmarsat
That is not ATM, is IP, or packet based. There are no new developments in ATM since longer than a decade now.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 21:50
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I was taken aback by the Air Asia advertising posters in the terminal which had a strap line "Air Asia - the airline with balls".
ISTR the term 'Big Kahunas' figures prominently in our very own Virgin's current media advertising bumf.

'cojones' next I guess.

Lucky that Brits only understand English
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 22:01
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Originally Posted by lapp
That is not ATM, is IP, or packet based. There are no new developments in ATM since longer than a decade now.
Expect all ATM to move to IPv6 and WIMAX in the near future. The actual network and transport layers are transparent to the applications like FANS. I also expect that FANS both 1/A and 2/B will be totally replaced by a more capable system.

See System Wide Information Management (SWIM), Flight Information eXchange Method (FIXM) and Weather Information eXchange Method (WXXM) and Aeronautical Information eXchange Method (AIXM). All will be available over Aircraft Access to SWIM (AAtS). SESAR and FAA have to settle a few standards issues. But ATM will be enhanced considerably.

I don't want to hijack the thread onto a totally different area that should perhaps be in Tech Log.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 22:22
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Just a point on fly by wire systems. Most systems in use do allow the pilot to disconnect the computers and enter a manual mode. There are different names for this mode such as direct electrical link or manual law. In this mode the aircraft is essentially a conventional aircraft.
Airbus is the exception to allow pilot reversion to a direct electrical link mode. Re versions and mode downgrades are computer controlled and not pilot selectable. The 787 allows manual selection by the pilot via one switch. There are pluses and minuses to both concepts.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 22:23
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First of all, if you are not an Airbus pilot you are unfortunately completely unqualified to draw too many conclusions from this tragic accident. If you are an Airbus pilot, you will know how little you know at this point, and are probably wisely remaining silent. Airbus pilots, and particularly those from the training community, will know the potential issues, but until the CVR and FDR have been recovered will say very little indeed.
Completely unqualified? Pretty strong statement, unless and until the cause is determined to be aircraft-specific
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 22:23
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Referring to floods in Malaysia and Thailand, he suggested that climate change may have played a part in more dangerous conditions for air travel: "There's a lot of rain, so that is something we need to look at carefully because the weather is changing. The weather is changing".
This is from the CEO of Air Asia!

Are we starting to pass the buck here rather than take full accountability for the practices his company has adapted on experience, training and conditions? There are numerous threads referring to previous incidents, I have witnessed their operations as another professional pilot at numerous airports around SE ASIA and all I can say is that I am not surprised.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 22:24
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Regarding comments that existing (and fitted) technology is already available for tracking aircraft at all times:

But is this equipment currently powered when the engines have flamed out? Satcom transmission invariably involves boxes which tend to use up a lot of power (and therefore are usually omitted from the list of things usually powered when the main electrical busses fail). Some aircraft don't even have standard ATC transponders powered when the aircraft systems are running on Standby or HMG/RAT power.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 22:30
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Count of Monte Bisto:

Whether I am an Airbus pilot or not doesn't matter. There are Boeing pilots here, as well as other technical and non-technical personnel. I'm asking a valid question. A pitot tube issue is a situation that could have affected the flight's outcome, and could be similar to AF 447 in that respect. You'll notice I'm not pointing a finger to any type of pilot error at this point.

Let's keep an open mind, shall we?????

BTW, this is a Professional Pilot Rumor board - I think we need to consider every possibility as to why this plane crashed. "Just the facts, Ma'am" are sketchy right now.

Last edited by crHedBngr; 31st Dec 2014 at 00:08.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 22:37
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then economy drives industry to want to eliminate the cost of routing control cables/rods and hydraulic power to each flight control, enter fly-by-wire.

4) An autoflight/flight control computer/autopilot system must always fly the fly-by-wire aircraft. there is no manual control to back up to.
Totally false statements. For your info fly-by-wire doesn't eliminate hydraulics. You have a long way to educate yourself about FBW and current flight control systems.
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