Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore
Very harrowing watching the TV link.
The A/C went missing just after dawn local time, so SAR resources have maximum daylight.
The A/C went missing just after dawn local time, so SAR resources have maximum daylight.
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as you know, most big thunderstorms are in need of energy from the sun and form in the afternoon...BUT
if you have a thunderstorm in the early AM it may have quite a bit of energy. A HUGE AMOUNT of energy.
wondering if ELT signals have been received by SAR
if you have a thunderstorm in the early AM it may have quite a bit of energy. A HUGE AMOUNT of energy.
wondering if ELT signals have been received by SAR
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Unconfirmed report: down in sea
An unconfirmed report from Jakarta says that the aircraft is down in the sea near Belitung island.
http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2014...Belitung.Timur
http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2014...Belitung.Timur
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http://www.reddit.com/live/u5bkiqteljl4
My goodness the radar pic is chilling.
https://twitter.com/thatjohn/status/...653889/photo/1
My goodness the radar pic is chilling.
https://twitter.com/thatjohn/status/...653889/photo/1
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From the radar plot submitted by training wheels, if the 353 is ground speed, it would be slower than expected at FL363.
See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.
An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777.
See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.
An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777.
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@SATCO
You can't trust the ADS-B data from flight trackers.
Local ATC reported that due to weather, QZ8501 requested to deviate left of the M635 airway and climb from FL320 to FL380.
There's good civilian and military radar coverage in the area as there's a regional airport at Belitung Island.
You can't trust the ADS-B data from flight trackers.
Local ATC reported that due to weather, QZ8501 requested to deviate left of the M635 airway and climb from FL320 to FL380.
There's good civilian and military radar coverage in the area as there's a regional airport at Belitung Island.
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Local news reports saying that the last communication with ATC was a request to climb to FL340.
The last communication between QZ8501's pilot and air traffic control was when he requested to increase his altitude to 34,000 feet due to bad weather, Indonesia's Metro TV reported.
Read more: AirAsia flight from Indonesia to Singapore with 162 people on board loses contact with air traffic control minutes after asking to take an 'unusual' flightpath | Daily Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Read more: AirAsia flight from Indonesia to Singapore with 162 people on board loses contact with air traffic control minutes after asking to take an 'unusual' flightpath | Daily Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Bottums Up
as you know, most big thunderstorms are in need of energy from the sun and form in the afternoon
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Wrt the suggestion that they asked to climb in order to avoid 'clouds'.
Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm.
Even if there is no cloud above a Cb, that should not be taken to infer that the air above the Cb is free from severe turbulence, and all that climbing would do is put one even closer into coffin-corner, at a time when (if sever turbulence occurs) one needs as much airspeed margin as possible.
Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm.
Even if there is no cloud above a Cb, that should not be taken to infer that the air above the Cb is free from severe turbulence, and all that climbing would do is put one even closer into coffin-corner, at a time when (if sever turbulence occurs) one needs as much airspeed margin as possible.
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Given that turbulence penetration speed for the A320 is 275kias, giving a TAS at FL340 of about 460kts, and the forecast winds were WSW, if that 360kt GS is accurate it is way too slow.
"Ichiban:
From the radar plot submitted by training wheels, if the 353 is ground speed, it would be slower than expected at FL363.
See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.
An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777."
Yeah a fair bit slower than expected.. but still not impossible when you consider that they may have been hitting best rate of climb to try and clear the weather and possibly pushing into 130kts of headwind.
From the radar plot submitted by training wheels, if the 353 is ground speed, it would be slower than expected at FL363.
See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.
An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777."
Yeah a fair bit slower than expected.. but still not impossible when you consider that they may have been hitting best rate of climb to try and clear the weather and possibly pushing into 130kts of headwind.
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Last edited by KrispyKreme; 28th Dec 2014 at 04:56. Reason: link update
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Ichiban,
If the aircraft was in fact climbing the LOWER airspeed would make sense to some extent. It's also possible the pilot reduced speed due to expected turbulence in CB. Finally if you have reduced IAS and you are climbing you would have a reduced margin above the stall in clean configuration. This can be a trap in extreme turbulence where IAS fluctuates wildly.
Now I am not speculating at all just answering Ichiban,s question about the reduced speed.
Groggy
If the aircraft was in fact climbing the LOWER airspeed would make sense to some extent. It's also possible the pilot reduced speed due to expected turbulence in CB. Finally if you have reduced IAS and you are climbing you would have a reduced margin above the stall in clean configuration. This can be a trap in extreme turbulence where IAS fluctuates wildly.
Now I am not speculating at all just answering Ichiban,s question about the reduced speed.
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From Indonesia National SAR official briefing:
(all times local)
05:36 QZ8501 departed Juanda airport, Surabaya
06:12 Contacts Jakarta center 125.70 at FL320, requests weather deviation left of M635 airway and climb to FL380
06:16 QZ8501 still observed on radar
06:17 Radar contact lost. Radio contact lost. Only ADS-B signal remained.
06:18 All contact lost. Only flight plan view on radar screen.
07:08 ATC declares INCERFA (aircraft position uncertain)
07:28 ATC declares ALERTFA (emergency alert)
07:55 ATC declares DETRESFA (emergency distress)
(all times local)
05:36 QZ8501 departed Juanda airport, Surabaya
06:12 Contacts Jakarta center 125.70 at FL320, requests weather deviation left of M635 airway and climb to FL380
06:16 QZ8501 still observed on radar
06:17 Radar contact lost. Radio contact lost. Only ADS-B signal remained.
06:18 All contact lost. Only flight plan view on radar screen.
07:08 ATC declares INCERFA (aircraft position uncertain)
07:28 ATC declares ALERTFA (emergency alert)
07:55 ATC declares DETRESFA (emergency distress)
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OLD KING C
"Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm."
Very well said, mate!
You simply cannot out climb them, I've seen some with tops at FL500 on the tropics.
Secondly you put the acft very close to the flight envelope limits if you climb 2,000 or more above the optimum, so any turbulence will put you on a high or slow speed stall. It's a very marginal situation.
Best way to avoid weather: steer away!
Very well said, mate!
You simply cannot out climb them, I've seen some with tops at FL500 on the tropics.
Secondly you put the acft very close to the flight envelope limits if you climb 2,000 or more above the optimum, so any turbulence will put you on a high or slow speed stall. It's a very marginal situation.
Best way to avoid weather: steer away!