Iceland volcano eruption risk level raised for aviation
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Eruption has started in Iceland
Lava just started spewing up through a lava area called Holuhraun just north of Bardarbunga volcano in northern Vatnajokull glacier.
An eruption has started north of Dyngjujökull - mbl.is
SIGMET published as well:
BIRD SIGMET 02 VALID 290120/290430 BIRK- BIRD REYKJAVIK CTA VA ERUPTION MT IN PROGRESS BARDARBUNGA / HOLUHRAUN - NO VA OBS - PSN EST PSN N6450 W01640 VA CLD OBS N6444 W01655 - N6510 W02000 - N6600 W01740 - N6444 W01610 SFC/FL180 MOV NNW 20KT
An eruption has started north of Dyngjujökull - mbl.is
SIGMET published as well:
BIRD SIGMET 02 VALID 290120/290430 BIRK- BIRD REYKJAVIK CTA VA ERUPTION MT IN PROGRESS BARDARBUNGA / HOLUHRAUN - NO VA OBS - PSN EST PSN N6450 W01640 VA CLD OBS N6444 W01655 - N6510 W02000 - N6600 W01740 - N6444 W01610 SFC/FL180 MOV NNW 20KT
Nice view of the eruption on the Mila webcam with a rare morning sunlight:
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
This is a small fissure eruption just like those at Kilauea in Hawaii, aviation threat zero. If this small eruption is sufficient to relieve the underground magma pressure (and that will become clear in a day or two) then the chances for any larger eruptions are slim.
Edit:
At present the webcam seems to show just steam venting (at a diminishing rate), the eruption itself appears to have paused.
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
This is a small fissure eruption just like those at Kilauea in Hawaii, aviation threat zero. If this small eruption is sufficient to relieve the underground magma pressure (and that will become clear in a day or two) then the chances for any larger eruptions are slim.
Edit:
At present the webcam seems to show just steam venting (at a diminishing rate), the eruption itself appears to have paused.
Last edited by andrasz; 29th Aug 2014 at 08:21.
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(a0284/14 notamr a0283/14
q) bird/qwwlw/iv/nbo/w /000/050/6459n01718w034
a) bird b) 1408290734 c) 1408291030
e) volcanic eruption in holuhraun est posn 6453n 01650w ne of volcano bardarbunga 373030 6437.5n 01731.5w iceland-ne. The forecasted ashcloud area is estimated to reach sfc/fl050 .
Danger area established within: N6444w01730-n6510w01830-n6530w01740-n6444w01610
no ifr clearance will be issued penetrating the danger area.
F) sfc g) fl050)
q) bird/qwwlw/iv/nbo/w /000/050/6459n01718w034
a) bird b) 1408290734 c) 1408291030
e) volcanic eruption in holuhraun est posn 6453n 01650w ne of volcano bardarbunga 373030 6437.5n 01731.5w iceland-ne. The forecasted ashcloud area is estimated to reach sfc/fl050 .
Danger area established within: N6444w01730-n6510w01830-n6530w01740-n6444w01610
no ifr clearance will be issued penetrating the danger area.
F) sfc g) fl050)
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Local scientists say that over 300 million sq meters of magma is in the tunnel system under that area. This short eruption last night was just a small splash, and that magma is still flowing into that tunnel system from below. Constant seizmic tremours going on still.
They say at the moment there are 3 most likely continued scenarios:
Other scenarios cannot be ruled out yet, so basically anything can still happen.
They say at the moment there are 3 most likely continued scenarios:
- Magma flow stops, as do the seizmic tremours and no further eruptions.
- Magma reaches the surface again via the same crators or new ones.
- Eruption starts under the glacier, which would result in explosive ash plumes as a result of magma coming in contact with ice, and the melting ice overflowing the main rivers towards the sea.
Other scenarios cannot be ruled out yet, so basically anything can still happen.
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SR-22, Do you really mean 300,000,000 square metres of magma? Magma bodies are 3-dimensional and volumes are usually expressed in cubic-km, or fractions thereof. Is there a reference for the 'local scientists' estimate?
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Sorry my bad, of course what I meant is over 300 million cubic meters.
Here is an article about it in English:
350 million cubic meters of magma in the dyke - mbl.is
Here is an article about it in English:
350 million cubic meters of magma in the dyke - mbl.is
These estimated magma amount are only a third of a cubic kilometer, which is a fifth of the ejected volume at Mt St Helens. So not a huge concern thus far.
Still, the volcano's record includes the earth's largest known eruption in the past 10,000 years.
Still, the volcano's record includes the earth's largest known eruption in the past 10,000 years.
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What is interesting is that the North-Atlantic 'mantle-plume' is thought to be situated directly under the NW corner of Vatnajökull. Having said that, some geologists doubt whether it actually exists!
Yawn. I grew up during the Krafla eruptions, went on for 8 or so years, with no real damage. This one shows same characteristics. Still may develop into a sub-glacier one with lots of ash. Noone knows...
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These estimated magma amount are only a third of a cubic kilometer, which is a fifth of the ejected volume at Mt St Helens. So not a huge concern thus far.
Still, the volcano's record includes the earth's largest known eruption in the past 10,000 years.
Still, the volcano's record includes the earth's largest known eruption in the past 10,000 years.
The estimated amount of ash plume that came out of the infamous Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, was less than that or 0.25 km3 to be exact. So I would disagree and say that we do definetely need to worry. But let's hope this will only be like the one this morning, just lava well away from the glaciers. Or like the locals like to say "a tourist eruption"
An interesting fact, that in the last 500 years Icelandic volcanoes have erupted a third of the total global lava output. And one of the worlds largest lava flows came out of the Eldgjá fissure system, just south of the glacier 18 cubic km.
One of the most dangerous ones, Mt Katla is overdue for an eruption.. that vulcano has in history changed the global weather for a long time. It has been closely monitored now for many years. I has about 6 times larger ice cap on top of it than Eyjafjallajökull had. That one we do need to worry about, and it is not that far away from the current activity.
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One of the most dangerous ones, Mt Katla is overdue for an eruption.. that vulcano has in history changed the global weather for a long time. It has been closely monitored now for many years. I has about 6 times larger ice cap on top of it than Eyjafjallajökull had. That one we do need to worry about, and it is not that far away from the current activity.
With our brains we regard time in our time scales days weeks months years to build an icecap of the size you are talking about would take many thousands of years of little or no activity so don't mislead the human mind timescale into thinking next week next month next year?
We are talking PROBABLY!!! of hundreds of years. While these major eruptions could be tomorrow look at the history and eruption time scales and the likelyhood becomes minuscule and not a weekly occurence
Pace
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Pace,
SR-22 is correct. Katla, the next global 'geomagnetic-reversal' and Jellystone Park are all running late. Don't forget that even in Scottish latitudes, a permanent ice-cap is only a hundred metres or so above Ben Nevis.
SR-22 is correct. Katla, the next global 'geomagnetic-reversal' and Jellystone Park are all running late. Don't forget that even in Scottish latitudes, a permanent ice-cap is only a hundred metres or so above Ben Nevis.
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Aye but PACE is also correct that in geology terms they will happen in the next micro bit of time.
But to humans that can be a couple of life times.
I suspect though in this case something is going to happen sooner rather than later with this bad boy. That isn't a scientific observation just a gut feel.
I was trying to estimate the energy involved with the opposing forces ie weight of rock weight of ice etc. It just mind boggling how much there is sitting balanced at the moment. if it all goes at once its going to be one huge bang. Slowly through some sort of throttle maybe not to bad. But its got to go somewhere.
But to humans that can be a couple of life times.
I suspect though in this case something is going to happen sooner rather than later with this bad boy. That isn't a scientific observation just a gut feel.
I was trying to estimate the energy involved with the opposing forces ie weight of rock weight of ice etc. It just mind boggling how much there is sitting balanced at the moment. if it all goes at once its going to be one huge bang. Slowly through some sort of throttle maybe not to bad. But its got to go somewhere.
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MJ, Ive been following the link OFO posted on page 3 quite closely, we're away to Cyprus sunday and looks like we'll get there now thankfully, not to bothered about being stranded there!...on the 3D bulge model in the link there was a magnitude of -0.6 yesterday and I'm struggling to find an answer for a minus(-) magnitude that doesnt conflict other answers, any ideas?
Verified Magnitude Time Depth
1.7 6 minutes ago 4.8km
1 7 minutes ago 5.1km
1.5 9 minutes ago 5.2km
1.2 10 minutes ago 2.2km
-0.6 12 minutes ago 11.4km
0.1 15 minutes ago 1.1km
1.8 16 minutes ago
Verified Magnitude Time Depth
1.7 6 minutes ago 4.8km
1 7 minutes ago 5.1km
1.5 9 minutes ago 5.2km
1.2 10 minutes ago 2.2km
-0.6 12 minutes ago 11.4km
0.1 15 minutes ago 1.1km
1.8 16 minutes ago
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Nearly I am no expert.
Richter magnitude scale - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The table in that is quite good at giving you a feel to how much bang it is in relation to bombs.
You can see a 5 is about the same as a 480 kiloton nuke going off. But 4 is 15ktons
Now as the Nagasaki fat boy nuke had a yield of 21kton. To give you a feel for the numbers.
Logarithmic scales are a bit of a pain to get your head round. Its easier if you can relate to something else which you can get your head round.
And the reason for the negative I think is because of a spurious reading that confused it. Possibly something local to the sensor.
I think they have a quality method which involves cross referencing three sites which if they all agree about the power and where it is, it then gets recorded as happening. Which then removes the likes of that reading
Richter magnitude scale - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The table in that is quite good at giving you a feel to how much bang it is in relation to bombs.
You can see a 5 is about the same as a 480 kiloton nuke going off. But 4 is 15ktons
Now as the Nagasaki fat boy nuke had a yield of 21kton. To give you a feel for the numbers.
Logarithmic scales are a bit of a pain to get your head round. Its easier if you can relate to something else which you can get your head round.
And the reason for the negative I think is because of a spurious reading that confused it. Possibly something local to the sensor.
I think they have a quality method which involves cross referencing three sites which if they all agree about the power and where it is, it then gets recorded as happening. Which then removes the likes of that reading