Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[camel]

AR1

the report of a pilot contacting the a/c (in the New Str Times) was discredited in one of the news conferences saying that no contact had been made.

there was another poster a long time ago on this thread,flying in the area, saying that he had heard atc trying to reach the a/c . sorry i dont have time to find it now ..maybe you can look?

[very ex-ba]

One of the noshos was a Singapore businessman who decided to reroute to Singpore instead of taking the flight, due to a more urgent business meeting. His two colleague he believed. in the article I read, were on the MH370, but may have rerouted to Shanghai for a different meeting.
His story was reported in The Straits Times, a few days back and at that point he obviously had not seen the pax list, because he hadn't been able to contact his colleagues but wasn't sure which City they had gone to in the end.

So that accounts for one nosho and possibly for 3.

It's easy enough to check out the noshos reasons for missing the flight as they will all be alive.

[Eclectic]

Malaysia Sending Ships to Check Debris Near Hong Kong - Bloomberg

Malaysia Sending Ships to Check Debris Near Hong Kong

[rachcollins]

There are reports around that the two passengers that were travelling on fake passports were originally booked on different airlines flying different routes before being changed onto MH370.

Benjaporn Krutnait, owner of the Grand Horizon travel agency in Pattaya, Thailand, said the Iranian, a long-term business contact who she knew only as “Mr Ali”, first asked her to book cheap tickets to Europe for the two men on March 1. Ms Benjaporn initially reserved one of the men on a Qatar Airways flight and the other on Etihad.

But the tickets expired when Ms Benjaporn did not hear back from Mr Ali. When he contacted her again on Thursday, she rebooked the men on the Malaysia Airlines flight through Beijing because it was the cheapest available. Ms Benjaporn booked the tickets through China Southern Airlines via a code share arrangement.

A friend of Mr Ali paid Ms Benjaporn cash for the tickets, she said, adding that it was quite common for people to book tickets in Pattaya through middle men such as Mr Ali, who then take a commission.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Global Warrior

After finding cracks in the Wings on the 787 production line and added to the 787 Battery issue, this couldn't have come at a worse time for Boeing. The last thing they need is for this to be blamed on the manufacturer.

FWIW, the 777 is a considerably more mature aircraft/program/system than the 787. Don't see how 787 growing pains/issues are relevant to a 777 going missing.

Originally Posted by BDiONU

I would suggest a Pan Am 103 situation but the curious bit is lack of wreckage so far.

If it happened over the ocean, why are you surprised that it's hard to find? Most stuff sinks. (Granted, there is plenty of stuff in an aircraft that floats) Having been involved in two maritime SAR efforts for missing aircraft, I can say that it is a damnably frustrating and time consuming endeavour. At least on the second occasion, one of the two pilots was found alive. (By another asset in the SAR mission, not by my crew).

Originally Posted by joshannon

Surely if the plane was shot down, by Vietnamese or the Malaysian's - both btw have trigger happy MIG fighter pilots, they would come clean.

On what basis do you assert that Malaysian and Vietnamese military pilots are trigger happy? Who have they shot up, or shot down, lately? Not well played.

Regarding Commander Marks of US Seventh Fleet: he overlooked Rule number 1 of a staff officer, which reads "Never overlook a chance to keep your fool mouth shut."

Originally Posted by Ida down

What a high speed stall, surely this aircraft is not capable of a high speed stall? Is this aircraft capable of getting into coffin corner?

Why wouldn't it be? Doesn't every plane in this class have a coffin corner that pilots know to avoid? I don't think any airplane design is able to void the laws of physics, nor the fundamentals of aerodynamics.

Originally Posted by BOAC

but if you knew where the Malacca Straights are you might raise an eyebrow?

I do, and I did. Seems someone is searching based on an ever expanding datum.

I wish to ask about something that got a lot of press after a well publicized incident over cabin pressurization: the private jet carrying Payne Stewart (golfer and US Open champ) and his friends went down after such an incident ... but it flew by itself for quite sometime after the pressurization failure took place.

With this 777:
Q1. If the aircraft gets to FL 350, and levels off, under what set of conditions would an explosive decompression, or other major cabin pressure incident, be related to the AP not being able to maintain cruise altitude, airspeed, and heading?

Q2. What about an event near the change from climb to level off? I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that the 777's AP allows the crew to have already programmed in the altitude and airspeed/Mach Nr desired for the flight to PEK, and that upon reaching the programmed altitude, it would do as selected ... unless WHAT happened?

I realize that I am asking about two major and more or less unrelated systems failures/malfunctions. (Talk about low probability).

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

Re ACARS

@ Luoto

At a previous press conference the authorities have already said (and someone posted many pages back) that they had received nothing untoward on ACARS from the aircraft, implying that (a) it was functioning, and (b) no adverse indicators prior to its final transmission.

[monoceros]

Larger image of the search area

note the dotted red box around both the original area and the new area.

From: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370: Civil aviation chief confirms that search area has been widened - live | World news | theguardian.com

[JamesT73J]

Originally Posted by training wheels

Quite possible, but switching your transponder off, you may still appear on primary radar returns if you're in radar range, but as an unidentified blip.

I'd add that it would require some detailed knowledge of the surveillance properties of a large area of airspace, and where could one take a 777 that wouldn't be noticed?

For my tuppence I think SAR seems like a long and very painstaking process, and it's incompatible with rolling news and social media.

They'll find it. It just may take a while.

[OPENDOOR]

I realize that I am asking about two major and more or less unrelated systems failures/malfunctions. (Talk about low probability)

Helios 522 + TWA 800?

[YRP]

Originally Posted by slip and turn

Coagie makes a good point. If you are seriously interested in effective research I recommend learning a few quick-win effective research techniques so you don't have to bash fellow PPRuNers for their sources! E.g. start with Google and a few well chosen search words like AF447 acoustic locator sonar frequency.

Then in seconds you might easily stumble over stuff like:
BEA to examine why acoustic sweep missed AF447 recorders - 5/5/2011 - Flight Global
https://fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/dow...issertacao.pdf

Slip and turn, none of these links nor the ones I found make as strong a statement as Coagie did, that the submarine search was ineffective because they were simply unaware of the signal being sought.

However that second link is quite interesting. I had not seen it; thank you for including it.

Coagie, there is a big difference between not knowing what signal to look for and adjusting the sensors settings / filtering / noise suppression, whatever, to improve the sensor range. Further, none of the sources I found indicate that the reanalysis of the tapes actually _did_ locate the signal. It appears it gave them a new search possibility that did not pan out, unless it was the basis of the phase 3 search.

Michelson interference? As in the Michelson-Morley experiment on the speed of light that demonstrated the lack of an ether (or that by a coincidence we happen to be stationary relative to the ether... always wondered why they discounted that possibility so readily -- okay only being tongue-in-cheek here ). I'm not quite sure what that has to do with underwater acoustics...

[Roadster280]

Very ex-ba -

The max radius of a cell in the GSM system is 35KM, usually much less. CDMA is about double that in theory (although in practice, about the same).

If the postulation is that the flight had descended to low level, then those ranges hold true. They would have to be within 35KM or so of a suitable cell. Added to the attenuation effect of being inside the aircraft skin, it doesn't seem likely to me. If the aircraft landed on a remote airfield (also seems improbable to me), it would have to be so isolated as to be entirely devoid of communications for it to have not been picked up by now. You can't hide an intact B777 when the world is looking for you. There's always the sat phones of course, but they aren't exactly commonly carried.

On the subject of the those whose phones have been called and they rung, this seems like rubbish to me. For the phone to have appeared to ring, the phone must be registered with the network (i.e. in a group of cells), been paged, and then responded to the page. If that had occurred, the network KNOWS which cell the mobile responded from, and records it. Ergo, the SAR authorities would know where to look. If they knew which cell to look in, I doubt it would take so many days to find it, and I would have expected the authorities to have said they know where the phones are/were.

I've had nothing to add on the aviation aspects, I'm just frequent SLF, so I have kept out of that, but I am a telecom engineer.

[luoto]

"So it is at the bottom of the sea, where the ELT transmissions can't be seen.
But the reality is that it could be anywhere in a radius of well over 1,000 miles."

So even if the Elt beacon is out of range, the emergency locator beacon that is usually with CVR/FDR will have/should deploy and be visible to those scanning the known frequency up to 6000m deep. I gave full details and links yesterday. Or course the signal won't radiate from 10km asl though.

I also caution people to read carefully Official statements with modifiers such as may. One word can give a lot of wriggle room and convey different meanings,

[training wheels]

A CCTV video of the Captain and FO going through security before they board the flight. I'm amazed at the clarity of the video. Surely the fake passport holders boarding the flight could be easily identified as well.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=...type=2&theater

[jeeplaw]

[quote[The max radius of a cell in the GSM system is 35KM, usually much less. CDMA is about double that in theory (although in practice, about the same).

If the postulation is that the flight had descended to low level, then those ranges hold true. They would have to be within 35KM or so of a suitable cell. Added to the attenuation effect of being inside the aircraft skin, it doesn't seem likely to me. If the aircraft landed on a remote airfield (also seems improbable to me), it would have to be so isolated as to be entirely devoid of communications for it to have not been picked up by now. You can't hide an intact B777 when the world is looking for you. There's always the sat phones of course, but they aren't exactly commonly carried.

On the subject of the those whose phones have been called and they rung, this seems like rubbish to me. For the phone to have appeared to ring, the phone must be registered with the network (i.e. in a group of cells), been paged, and then responded to the page. If that had occurred, the network KNOWS which cell the mobile responded from, and records it. Ergo, the SAR authorities would know where to look. If they knew which cell to look in, I doubt it would take so many days to find it, and I would have expected the authorities to have said they know where the phones are/were.

[/quote]

I absolutely agree. I'm not in aviation, but I deal more with the forensic analysis of data, including cell phones. As of today it looks like 19 people have come together to say they've attempted to call and successfully ring onboard cell phones.

19.

Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Passengers' Mobile Phones Ring But Not Answered

That seems a little suspect, but at the same time not that unbelievable. These phones could have been roaming and could have registered, profile/prl updates with the nearest network cell. When I travel internationally that's how it works for me if my phone is set for that.

I wonder how much of this information is going up the flagpole to the people who need to know, assuming it's true. At this point in time, I have no reason based on the what the news is reporting that it's NOT true. So in essence, there may be a phone that is registered on a network receiving incoming trx.

Now where those phones are? Who knows, but as you mentioned the authorities CAN backtrack off the signals.

[India Four Two]

It would appear that an aircraft falling over a dense jungle canopy, especially if breaking up at altitude, would be difficult to find.
Perhaps that is where they should be looking, especially in southern Vietnam.

Wild Goose,
There's not much canopy left in southern Vietnam. South of Saigon, it is effectively one giant, heavily-populated rice field, broken up by canals. Someone would have noticed a 777 coming down.

[RatherBeFlying]

Hydrophones

The US (and probably other) Navy operates hydrophone networks to track submarines. There's other listening posts. When the USS Scorpion collapsed underwater, research hydrophones in Newfoundland and the Canaries caught the sound and triangulation helped narrow the search.

A lot of tape had to be analysed to determine which noise was the collapse event.

There would be an acoustic event if an intact hull (or big enough piece) hit at speed. But would the sound propagate in shallow water to wherever a hydrophone would pick it up -- provided that there's any hydrophones that would pick up acoustic events in the area.

Navies are very secretive about where their hydrophone networks are placed.

[threemiles]

A CCTV video of the Captain and FO going through security before they board the flight. I'm amazed at the clarity of the video. Surely the fake passport holders boarding the flight could be easily identified as well.

Jackets left on
Alarm seems to go off, but
Manual search rather non existant

As these details pop up (by whoever for whatever purpose), we will see many more of these breaches.
All passengers searched?
All hand baggage screened?
All belly baggage screened?

[Nightingale14]

Seems you are correct about doctored passport photos as Malaysian authorities have confirmed Italian passport holder was black. Says believes dealing with a passport forgery ring.

[flt001]

Given the press conference and the SAR grid update, are we now able to assume that an 'event' causing it to crash into the sea at IGARI is now not the favoured theory, unless it slipped under the surface at this location without trace, although there is some precedent for this it does seem unlikely.

Therefore it flew for some distance after the last piece of public available data and crashed somewhere else. I'm discounting the theory that this bird is somewhere on the ground intact. Assuming the authorities have more detail than us (very much hope so) the change in SAR grid does seem to indicate the plane flew for at least another 30-60mins before crashing somewhere.

That leaves us with the option of an unlikely catastrophic electrical failure at FL350 causing the transponder to fail along with anything but basic instruments & controls, perhaps a RAT failure so no chance of radio contact. Then an attempted return under VFR at night, got lost, fuel starvation and crash. We then need to factor in the failure/non activation of the ELT.

In other words the last two paragraphs need a lot of holes to line up to occur.

The more realistic option based on this (sad to say) is someone pulled the CBs in an attempted hijack, flew for sometime, passengers/crew attempted to retake and the result was a crash.

In both cases the SAR area is much larger as the plane could have flow in any direction for 4/5 hours. I think it will be found but outside even the current search grid.

[Marty33]

Pressurization?

Does it seem likely to the 777 guys that the pressurization was not set, mis-set, or malfunctioned? Was MH 370 already at cruise? Possibly a Payne Stewart Lear Jet type of event?


Failing that theory, seems like explosive decompression from whatever cause is most likely.