Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Propduffer]

If we accept that the Inmarsat arcs and the radar trace are correct then we have a timing anomaly. If MH370 maintained its last known course - the radar track - then we have a problem because it would cover only about 140NM between two ping arcs which are timed at 1 hour and 12 minutes apart. It is speculated therefore that the aircraft took a large and unexplained northerly diversion (the hook referred to in the Australian report) in order to maintain both a plausible airspeed and the timings of the satellite pings. There is as yet, no reasonable explanation of why this should have happened.

There is a reasonable explanation which does not require a northward excursion. The portion of the 18:29 (The BTO data was obtained at 18:29, not 18:25) ping ring plots as nearly north - south (NNW-SSE) at the point it is likely to have intersected the flight path of MH-370. The exact point where the flight path intersected the ping ring was at about 6°32'34.04"N 96°42'17.66"E. this is about 20nm east of where the Malaysians have vaguely given it's position at 18:22. I accept the Inmarsat BTO data as accurate and thus ignore the Malaysian position estimate at 18:22.

As you say, the 19:40 ping ring does lie only about 140nm from the 18:29 ping ring - and it is probable that 9M-MRO did cross the 19:40 ring or pass very close to it about 18 minutes after reaching the 18:29 ping ring.

However at that time (about 18:47) there were no satellite communications in progress, so there was never any BTO data collected to reflect that time and place. Thus the 140 nm distance between the two ping rings is meaningless as far as 9M_MRO's flight path is concerned.

What happened at about 18:47 was that 9M-MRO turned south - and when the 19:41 Inmarsat transaction took place and logged the BTO data, 9M-MRO was at about 2°38'57.58"N 94°42'33.49"E (plotted for a 376kt speed) or about 1° 3'43.56"N 94°42'30.43"E if the plane was flying at 470kts.

The 19:40 ping ring also traces an almost north - south path at this longitude so 9M-MRO was on or near that ring for over an hour on its journey south but it was only at 19:41 that the BTO data was collected.

[JamesGV]

Oldoberon

That's what I mean (Woodpecker is "lost in the trees" methinks).

I am trying to arrive at 2.25am MYT (1825 UTC) and the events surrounding that event.

The SATCOM sys has to go "off line" (either offline or de-powered) prior to this login. (For Woodpecker... the 1825 UTC login !).

For a login, it has to have logged off.
It can't be a dual IDG failure (APU auto starts)
It "could" be a dual IDG failure and APU failure.
BUT what restarts SATCOM ? So it can't be that.
So a "forced" log off ?
Then why does it log on again ?

You see a "mysterious power outage" doesn't explain anything.
As in.... the sys "logged off" before it "logged on" again.

[Ornis]

MH370: New evidence of cockpit tampering as investigation into missing plane continues - Telegraph

The Australian report revealed attempted log on at 2.25am, three minutes after it was detected by Malaysian military radar, as the plane was flying north of Sumatra.

David Gleave from Loughborough University said the interruption to the power supply appeared to be the result of someone in the cockpit attempting to minimise the use of the aircraft's systems... consistent with an attempt to turn the plane's communications and other systems off in an attempt to avoid radar detection.

Inmarsat has confirmed the assessment but says it does not know why the aircraft experienced a power failure.

Peter Marosszeky, U of NSW ... the power interruption must have been intended ... would not have caused an entire power failure but would have involved a "conscious" attempt to remove power from selected systems on the plane ... The aircraft has so many backup systems. Any form of power interruption is always backed up by another system. It would have to be a deliberate act to hijack or sabotage the aircraft.

Contrary opinions from other independent informed sources?

[JamesGV]

Propduffer.....

Or... the a/c "held" off the coast, further south of Banda Aceh.

It is the only way you can get "the fit".
And that means it wasn't a "constant" heading South.
And that doesn't fit the ATSB report *which wasn't written for "this" particular purpose anyway...but did state "a constant heading".

Edit (which is speculation) a "hold" would fit "an a/c in distress", rather than any other suggestion.
Although there are other possibilities, however unlikely they may be.

[JamesGV]

"It would have to be a deliberate act to hijack or sabotage the aircraft".

.....Which is speculation as he wasn't there.

(And he readily links the 2.22am MYT with the 2.25am MYT log in, without providing specific proof that this was the case, however likely it was).

[Propduffer]

It is the only way you can get "the fit".

I don't know what you mean by that.

By "held" do you mean flew in circles? If so, I've never heard that theory before.

IMO it turned south at or near POVUS or NOPEK, and like everyone else I assume that it held a constant speed and course, or GC route until it ran out of fuel. But like everyone else I can't find a speed or route that intersects all the ping rings at the right times.

[PrivtPilotRadarTech]

The only thing you can turn off that affects radar detection is the transponder, which can simply be turned off. So the power failure is NOT "consistent with an attempt to turn the plane's communications and other systems off in an attempt to avoid radar detection." However, it is consistent with an attempt to avoid communication.

[JamesGV]

It's not a new concept.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/bu7ajeqvhe...ght%20Path.pdf

Edit, that's if there is a route south.
At Banda Aceh a U.K sailor saw a "glowing orange" a/c heading "south". And two other a/c heading "North".

Mention "conspiracy" and they jump on you here !
As an "ex pat" Brit working in the sandpit, I don't believe half the things I am suppose to.
I'm just saying "it either held" (in a hold) or didn't get there at the time specified. (Or "wasn't it")

[Propduffer]

I'm just saying "it either held" (in a hold) or didn't get there at the time specified. (Or "wasn't it"

Where is there? If it's 19:41, there is no need for flying in circles. That time works out with no problem, the location is near 2°38'57.58"N 94°42'33.49"E.

If it's the terminal spot you mean, the where is the question. There are a lot of possible solutions for that. As many solutions as there are discernible speeds. But to where?

The dropbox pix is a non sequitur, it shows the flight path over Indonesian territory. We may not know everything, but we know for sure it never overflew Indonesian airspace, especially Indonesian landmass. That flight path puts the plane almost directly overhead of the Indonesian radar at Lhokseumawe.

The flying in circles premise is utter nonsense, there is no indication of that, there is no evidence for it and it makes no sense. The "sighting" you mention was investigated and came to nothing.

[MG23]

Originally Posted by JamesGV

You see a "mysterious power outage" doesn't explain anything.
As in.... the sys "logged off" before it "logged on" again.

There's no explicit logoff message in the released logs, as there would be if someone on board had told it to log off. So it lost the satellite signal, or lost power, or temporarily failed in some other way, but about the only thing we know for sure is that it didn't do a clean logoff.

[sky9]

Would you like to look at YWKS as "destination" then have a look at SkyVector.com for the intermediate waypoints and see if you can tie that in with the ping circles. Routes from the north towards YWKS all go through the ATSB amber arc.
If someone can produce the en-route winds for that date in a readable format it would then be possible to modify the reasonable cruise mach no (0.82?) for the ambient winds to generate a G/S.

[JamesGV]

MG23

I stand corrected. This is true, there is no "log off" recorded.
That in itself maybe significant.

[JamesGV]

@Propduffer

We don't know alot at the moment !

We know (it is claimed) that Lhokseumawe DID NOT detect MH370 in the Straits. And we KNOW that DUAMO to PEN is 160nm wide.

Indonesia claim they cover 240nm from Lhokseumawe.
Could be a "pi**ing contest" ?

So where did it go ?


And some pretty pictures to go with it....
http://alert5.com/2014/03/16/could-t...he-fate-mh370/

[nick1austin]

Originally Posted by Propduffer

The exact point where the flight path intersected the ping ring was at about 6°32'34.04"N 96°42'17.66"E. this is about 20nm east of where the Malaysians have vaguely given it's position at 18:22. I accept the Inmarsat BTO data as accurate and thus ignore the Malaysian position estimate at 18:22.

There must be some mistake on your calculations because 6°32'34.04"N 96°42'17.66"E isn't on the ping ring.

I can't find anywhere that the Malaysians give coordinates for loss of PSR but using the map contained within AE-2014-054_MH370_SearchAreasReport.pdf it appears to be approximately 6.6°N 96.3°E.

If I project a great arc from just south of Penang Island through that point until it intersects the the ping ring I get 6°52'14"N 95°28'28"E. That works out remarkably well giving a constant ground speed all the way from the turn-around in the South China Sea to the 18:27 ping ring of 560 knots. I therefore can't see any justification for claiming that the 18:22 position is wrong.

[Propduffer]

@nick
We don't seem to be using he same ping ring information.

Here's where mine came from.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ezs6imv36..._UkCXLEIGDVwQa

It's true that the Malaysians never gave the coordinates for the loss of track. Their tightest definition for that location afik is about 10 miles past MEKAR, your location for 18:22 as stated by them is close enough IMO.

560kts gs is a bit fast for a 777.

[Propduffer]

@James

We know (it is claimed) that Lhokseumawe DID NOT detect MH370 in the Straits.

They didn't say that - read it again - what they said was that they didn't track such a target over their territory.

12nm north of Pulau We Island fits that description just fine.

[Propduffer]

@Gysbreght

You state that as a fact, but on what basis?
Sure, the plane must have turned south at some time between 18:29 and 19:41, but when?

I've spent a lot of time on this point, I was originally of the opinion that the plane went further west before making the turn.

But after working with the ping rings and taking into account fuel burn limitations I have come to the conclusion that even as far as IGOGU is extremely unlikely. Also there would have been no reason to have gone that far, the normal airline routes past the northern tip of Indonesian Territory are through IGEBO, so I conclude that's about where the turn was made.

This would have occurred about 18:47.

If you have other theories, I'd like to hear them.

[Propduffer]

@sky9
YWKS might work and it is such a cute solution - but the guy in the left seat could have punched in anything he wanted to, so I see nothing compelling about that waypoint.

If someone can produce the en-route winds for that date in a readable format

An intelligent approximation of this data is very much needed. I would think it would be best done by someone experienced in plotting winds aloft in that part of the globe - which leaves me out.

Is there someone out there..............................?

[nick1austin]

Originally Posted by Propduffer

Here's where mine came from.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ezs6imv36..._UkCXLEIGDVwQa

It's explained somewhere that the PR_18_27_47.kml file is incorrect. Use Ping_Ring_18_29.kml instead.

[OleOle]

Turning south

The inmarsat raw data release has a BFO Value of 88 for the 18:39:55 unanswered ground to air phone call. That is an (imho strong) indicator that the aircraft velocity vector at that time already had a southern component, i.e. the heading was somewhat south of due west.