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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 01:28
  #9041 (permalink)  
 
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Remarks of Tony Tyler at the IATA OPS Conference, Kuala Lumpur

IATA - Remarks of Tony Tyler at the IATA OPS Conference, Kuala Lumpur

"Speculation—of which there has been much—will not make flying any safer. "

"Whether or not there is a security dimension to this tragedy, that two passengers could board an aircraft with fake passports rings alarm bells. Airlines are neither border guards nor policemen. That is the well-established responsibility of governments. The industry goes to great effort and expense to ensure that governments who require API (or Advance Passenger Information) receive reliable data. And, along with our passengers, airlines have a right to ask these governments review their processes for vetting and using this data—for example against databases such as the Interpol stolen and lost passport database. The information is critical and it must be used effectively.

It costs the airlines millions of dollars every year to provide API to some 60 governments. I’ve often wondered whether they were using it.

So in the name of the effective use of passenger data, we call on governments

To harmonize on the ICAO standard elements and eliminate all other requirements

To eliminate the collection of passenger and cargo data on paper forms

To create a single harmonized window through which airlines can submit electronic data to governments

And to use this data to improve both the efficiency and effectiveness of border controls. "
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 01:31
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Nothern Route is possible?

458 pages, is a northern route, still possibility?
Well I think so.

Many accept so easily that one country did not respond to an unidentified aircraft crossing their borders and overflying their territory, and not letting on until days later, but only a few accept the possibility of a nothern route.

What is the intersection of the satellite - ping flight path and the Nothern arc? What are the countries that would have to be overflown?

There is also nothing to say that these countries need to publicize instances of unidentified aircraft crossing their borders. In fact there are many good reasons why they cannot.

I am trying to help. Check the northern route.
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 01:40
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The aviation world and business would collapse... what a coup.
This thought has been canvassed already: see e.g. http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8380096
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 02:08
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Police investigate possible poisoning of food on missing plane

Police investigate possible poisoning of food on missing plane
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 02:29
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Police investigate possible poisoning of food on missing plane
Good grief. It is a routine check, since they have so little to go on. Irresponsible to portray as some important new development. Odds of it having anything to do with this situation are less than of the plane being struck by a meteor.
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 02:38
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Isn't it a bit late to check for food poisoning ?

Every batch that was made would be good by now, 3 weeks later ?
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 03:29
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hamster3null
You have a valid point indeed!
On an open ATC channel with possibly dozen other aircraft listening in? And no one came forward and reported it in the media the morning after the disappearance? Count me as skeptical.
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 03:48
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ian w . your theory of little or no interest in an aircraft wandering around the skies might have some validity if the disinterested parties were unaware that an aircraft was missing. 370 was known to be missing at the time it should have contacted vietnam and it is inconceivable that the word did not reach all parts of se asia in a very short time. all surrounding atccs would be on alert for the aircraft on radio and radar. interest would be of a very high order I would say.
I don't know about that. I suspect that when word was passed that 370 had disappeared off radar and wasn't responding to calls - and that there had been no mayday or emergency codes - people started looking for it. But they weren't looking -up- for it, they were looking -down- because the general assumption would have been a crash, not that the plane was out joyriding far from its intended destination. Doubtful if anyone would have noticed a random radar blip and thought "gee, there goes that missing plane!"
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 05:07
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Some thoughts

To my mind there are only two sensible reasons for this disappearance, both with similar scenarios after an event.

First a rapid depressurization leading to an hypoxia event. Someone turned the aircraft around but was unable to complete a diversion and the nav and management systems, having had their original inputs changed, but not finalised to a new destination due to crew incapacity, eventually went walkabout.

Second a smouldering cargo which vented toxic fumes from the wrapping which overcame the crew who, identifying a problem, turned back. This begs the question as to why tthe diversion wasn't called to ATC, but human beings don't always do the expected/necessary when faced with a crisis. Can anyone say what the fire suppression equipment on a 777-200 is able to cope with in terms of smouldering rather than outright fire?
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 06:38
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To my mind there are only two sensible reasons for this disappearance, both with similar scenarios after an event.
I don't think you can rule out a professional hijack yet
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 06:40
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For those of you looking for more satellite protocol information. This appears to contain quite a lot of the frequency, channel, packet info etc
Report of the seventh meeting

I doubt it's really going to get us any closer than the perfectly understandable inmarsat ping arc map, plus the measured and apparently tested against 777 airframes with same electronics suite doppler shifts...
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 06:44
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Let's get it right -

Radios etc were not 'switched off', they stopped working.

Earlier posts referred to the effects of 'neurotoxic particulates' on flight crew performance.

We still haven't seen a radar plot.

Or the cargo manifest, I think?

And finally, how did they 'positively identify' an 'unidentified primary target' without taking a look at it?
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 06:45
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Looks like any investigation might be held here in Aus ?

Australia to represent Malaysia in MH370 investigation

Australia has agreed to be an “accredited representative” of Malaysia in the investigation into missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370, a development that could lead to the lengthy probe into the jet's disappearance being based here. The announcement was made by Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak on his visit to Perth on Thursday and came as the search zone was “further refined” and shifted north as aircraft, ships and a nuclear submarine continued the hunt for remnants of the passenger plane.
As revealed by Fairfax Media, a group of nations have been pressing Malaysia to allow the investigation into MH370 to be based in Australia amid concerns about the chaotic handling in Kuala Lumpur of its disappearance.
While Malaysia will formally head the investigation as required by international convention, Mr Najib told media on Thursday that Australia was now “an accredited representative”.
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 06:55
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Radios etc were not 'switched off', they stopped working.
Or, perhaps better, nothing was received from the aircraft except SATCOM communication?
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 06:55
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I agree with Martynemh All his questions must be answered. The industry can not less this incident go unresolved, with circa 1100 777s still flying. Remember the Comet disappearance. The radar plot must be published in full, along with the cargo manifest.
Whatever the political pressure the Malaysian PM should take the lead here.
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 07:03
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Australia has agreed to be an "accredited representative" of Malaysia
That's not how I read it.

Australia is not representing Malaysia, poor choice of words on the journalist's part. Australia is an accredited representative to the investigation, which is only to be expected per ICAO Annex 13, 5.23:

"Any State that provides an operational base for field investigations, or is involved in search and rescue or wreckage recovery operations ... may also be invited to appoint an accredited representative to participate in the investigation".
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 07:13
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I agree with Martynemh All his questions must be answered. The industry can not less this incident go unresolved, with circa 1100 777s still flying. Remember the Comet disappearance. The radar plot must be published in full, along with the cargo manifest.
Whatever the political pressure the Malaysian PM should take the lead here.
Walnut

Sadly as in life we cannot always get what we want. Personally I think we are as likely to get a definitive answer to this tragic event as you are likely to be the next man to set foot on the moon.
In a week the blackboxes will run out of charge and then what? How much has it cost already for all the searches to date?
The chances of even getting an answer as to where the wreckage lies is probably almost zero.
so barring a miracle this will end up as one of lifes unsolved mysteries

Pace
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 07:30
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Age Related Drift and "On Conditrion" Maintenance

developed using original source data and a deep understanding of the equipment and specifications.
I admit that Inmarsat and academic scientists know their systems inside out, but my question on the accuracy of their prediction is based on my own knowledge of aircraft systems and equipment that interface with the outside world [40+ years as an avionics specialist on Boeing 707, 737, 747, 757, 767 and currently on 787].

The MOPS for a Mode S Transponder (which includes Modes A and C functions) requires a very precise 8 microsecond interval to identify an interrogation, and trigger the response. The response is then either a 56 microsecond or a 112 microsecond burst of data. The 120 microsecond reply is very finely calibrated. A recent Airworthiness Directive (2014-05-07 for those who are interested) directed at a particular manufacturer's Mode S transponder requires them to be sent for bench testing and re-alignment every 4 years to detect and correct age related alignment drift in the electronic components. Such drift cannot be noted by crew or maintenance monitoring. DME Interrogators require similar calibration accuracy, but DME indications are directly monitored by the aircew and drift is quickly noted.

Now, compared to the precision calibration of ATC transponders and DME interrogators, there are no such requirements for Satcom systems. A one microsecond variation within the airborne equipment's processing circuits could easily result in a 2,000 km error in the position calculation. There is nothing in the equipment specifications that makes that unlikely - the equipment is just as likely to suffer age related drift as any other avionics equipment. Unlike transponders, Satcom equipment is maintained purely "On Condition" and there is absolutely no way that the scientists producing their range predictions, based on analysis of "handshake" responses that were never intended for range determination, could know the internal condition of the airborne components of the Satcom system. I have been sceptical of the predicted range arcs since they were first promulgated and nothing I have seen or heard since has changed my opinion - these Satcom range arcs are of questionable accuracy.

Sadly, they are the only thing the search coordinators have to go on.
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 07:30
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Thumbs up AMSS protocols

Well spotted JoBloggs2.

That material made it into ICAO Annex 10, Volume III in more-or-less that form. Now I think it has been moved into an ICAO manual which forms and appendix or some-such to Annex 10. It is based on the Inmarsat specification as outlined in their System Definition Manual for their aeronautical service. It should be mandatory bedtime reading for those commenting on satcom matters on this site.

Interestingly, the so-called "pings" will probably contain information pertinent to the investigation, such as class of log-on (high gain, low gain etc.) which will indicate whether the aircraft antenna was pointing at the satellite and which in turn will indicate the status of the FMS.

All good stuff.
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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 07:38
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Originally Posted by Blacksheep
there is absolutely no way that the scientists producing their range predictions, based on analysis of "handshake" responses that were never intended for range determination, could know the internal condition of the airborne components of the Satcom system
They don't really need to know the exact condition: they could use the "pings" on ground, when the satcom gear is in a known location, to calibrate from. Barring extreme drift during flight, this should be very accurate.
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