Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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There is a difference between probabilities and guesswork. The current known facts do not provide sufficient information to calculate probabilities. The missing evidence has been replaced by assumptions. Assumptions are generally subjective views of likely occurrences from within our own experience.
Earlier in the thread someone suggested the scientific research is underpinned by probabilities. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is the proper and refined understanding of what is possible rather than what is probable that forces back the boundaries of our understanding.
If our understanding of the physical world was based on what was probable, we would still believe Newton's theories to be true. It is only with disciplined thought that the most unlikely can be ruled in or ruled out properly.
It is the unknown unknowns that are the hardest to allow for, as has been quoted a number of times.
What we do know is that without a more restricted search area it will be almost impossible to locate the aircraft. This fact is a known known but emotions are running high.
AF447 had a similar scenario, but after the public gradually lost interest, the search was scaled down and then ended. It was only a proper review of the evidence, and a proper and thorough search of the only area it could have been, that solved the mystery.
This situation is not so easy. As time goes by evidence is lost and overwritten. It is more evidence that is needed, and if the aircraft is to be found, that is where the focus should be.
The SAR process is more of a PR exercise than anything else.
I hope I am wrong...
Earlier in the thread someone suggested the scientific research is underpinned by probabilities. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is the proper and refined understanding of what is possible rather than what is probable that forces back the boundaries of our understanding.
If our understanding of the physical world was based on what was probable, we would still believe Newton's theories to be true. It is only with disciplined thought that the most unlikely can be ruled in or ruled out properly.
It is the unknown unknowns that are the hardest to allow for, as has been quoted a number of times.
What we do know is that without a more restricted search area it will be almost impossible to locate the aircraft. This fact is a known known but emotions are running high.
AF447 had a similar scenario, but after the public gradually lost interest, the search was scaled down and then ended. It was only a proper review of the evidence, and a proper and thorough search of the only area it could have been, that solved the mystery.
This situation is not so easy. As time goes by evidence is lost and overwritten. It is more evidence that is needed, and if the aircraft is to be found, that is where the focus should be.
The SAR process is more of a PR exercise than anything else.
I hope I am wrong...
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it took 2 years to find AF 447 , in a defined area following the discovery of wreckage on the surface. locating the aircraft on the sea floor was'nt a matter of luck either, just the logical result of searching for, and finding, something known to be there. compare that with the 370 situation. no surface wreckage yet to help define a search area on the bottom. it has been mentioned that a sea floor search might not start until some evidence turns up to justify it in a particular area. the present deployment of the towed locator will at least be seen as an attempt to find 370 while the signal from it is still hopefully being transmitted. miracles do happen... but if not this time, the searchers will just buckle down to painstakingly cover a very wide area at 1.5 kts per hour and one day, like AF 447, they will find it... but it could take a lot longer.
I think we can pretty safely assume the existence of the satellite system 'pings' was a fine-print detail that was entirely unexpected/unknown at the time of the incident (no matter what the cause) - hence the occasional allegation that the aircraft was flown in circles/jinked back on itself, or whatever really doesn't seem to hold any credibility with respect to the computed track.
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"Good night Malaysian three seven zero".
Last words from cockpit of MH370 were "Goodnight Malaysian three seven zero"
KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia's Department of Civil Aviation has said the last words from the cockpit of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 were "Good night Malaysian three seven zero".
"We would like to confirm that the last conversation in the transcript between the air traffic controller and the cockpit is at 0119 (Malaysian Time) and is "Good night Malaysian three seven zero," it said in a short statement issued on Monday night.
It was said earlier the last words from the flight were "Alright, goodnight".
"The authorities are still doing forensic investigation to determine whether those last words from the cockpit were by the pilot or the co-pilot,'' said the statement.
It added that acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein "has instructed the investigating team to release the full transcript" which will be made available during the briefing to the next-of-kin of passengers on board the flight, which disappeared on March 8.
KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia's Department of Civil Aviation has said the last words from the cockpit of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 were "Good night Malaysian three seven zero".
"We would like to confirm that the last conversation in the transcript between the air traffic controller and the cockpit is at 0119 (Malaysian Time) and is "Good night Malaysian three seven zero," it said in a short statement issued on Monday night.
It was said earlier the last words from the flight were "Alright, goodnight".
"The authorities are still doing forensic investigation to determine whether those last words from the cockpit were by the pilot or the co-pilot,'' said the statement.
It added that acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein "has instructed the investigating team to release the full transcript" which will be made available during the briefing to the next-of-kin of passengers on board the flight, which disappeared on March 8.
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To be fair, for the first couple days I like to think Malaysia genuinely believed the aircraft 'crashed' somewhere in SCS relatively close to their shore in which case they probably have sufficient assets in place to look for it w/o outside help.
In regards to aircraft carrier I agree. I think the USN should at least send a LHD/LPD (heli carrier not full flat top) to join in the effort.
In regards to aircraft carrier I agree. I think the USN should at least send a LHD/LPD (heli carrier not full flat top) to join in the effort.
Now that Australia is heading up the search, the US has been requested to provide any and all assistance possible.
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Drift away from crash site
At this point in time, any debris left floating,will have drifted well away from the actual crash site. Continuing to look for floating debris in the same area, where the crash is suspected to have occurred, will ensure no floating debris is found.
The trouble is, the crash site is close to an ocean gyre. This means the floating debris could have drifted in almost any direction, depending on the exact crash location, and traveled over 1,000 miles by now.
This, assuming that ocean currents and not winds are the main factor in determining the path of the drift.
The trouble is, the crash site is close to an ocean gyre. This means the floating debris could have drifted in almost any direction, depending on the exact crash location, and traveled over 1,000 miles by now.
This, assuming that ocean currents and not winds are the main factor in determining the path of the drift.
Ian W: I am not missing the point, at all. I absolutely agree with how valuable any debris found would be. It would go a LONG WAY to changing the search operation's basis from an area of uncertainty to a more useful datum.
One could then use current models to estimate a better LKP, or LKPAoU, that would confine the actual search for the aircraft, and those acoustic beacons, to an area that has a hope in hell of hearing a noise before the beacon goes silent.
Closure? That isn't the primary mission area I care about. I understand the politics of this issue, but that is in my mind a secondary consideration until someone can figure out where MH370 came to rest.
Why? Because we have one, or because it will aid the effort in a particular fashion? I have a few ideas, but would be interested in what yours are.
One could then use current models to estimate a better LKP, or LKPAoU, that would confine the actual search for the aircraft, and those acoustic beacons, to an area that has a hope in hell of hearing a noise before the beacon goes silent.
Closure? That isn't the primary mission area I care about. I understand the politics of this issue, but that is in my mind a secondary consideration until someone can figure out where MH370 came to rest.
Originally Posted by PriFly
In regards to aircraft carrier I agree. I think the USN should at least send a LHD/LPD (heli carrier not full flat top) to join in the effort.
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AF447 had a similar scenario, but after the public gradually lost interest, the search was scaled down and then ended. It was only a proper review of the evidence, and a proper and thorough search of the only area it could have been, that solved the mystery.
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It could have been found faster. There was a lot of modelling to reduce the search zone as much as possible from the defined area, and it actually backfired. If the search team had started out with the full-on systematic scan to which it eventually was forced to resort - and which turned up the wreck in about a week - it wouldn't have taken anywhere near as long.
I read they recalled the american modelers who re- did the model after changing some parameters the main one being to assume the pinger had'nt worked and with the new area went and found it almost immediately.
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With AF447 it was actually different, first of all floating debris was identified relatively soon - within a few days. Then French searched underwater for a year and could not find anything. A US oceanography research firm was then hired to perform extensive calculations which ultimately led to finding the wreck.
Just by combing the surface, they found 50 relatively well-preserved bodies, about 30 external parts including the tail fin and one engine cowl, and hundreds of internal parts even including one toilet door and one whole galley. All this was found within 3 weeks after the crash, spread over 2x2 degree area.
If the debris field of MH370 is similar and if Australians are looking in the right place right now or were looking in the right place at any point in the last two weeks, it's hard to explain whey they did not find anything at all so far.
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Lonewolf50 - Well the most obvious one is time on station. Since they are still doing visual SAR, aircrafts from a LHD (SH-60s, CH53s and MH22s etc can fly multiple sorties on the search area instead of just having a small handful of aircrafts taking turns one or two at a time flying out of Pierce AFB over a thousand miles away.
A lot of the helos are also outfitted with sensors sensitive enough to pick up a periscope potruding from the surface soi I'd imagine similar sensor can be tweak if necessary ti pick up metal debris etc.
A LHD can also operate independantly w/o the need for escorts etc to lessen the operational costs of having an entire CSG there and be almost as effective.
anyway just my 2c.
A lot of the helos are also outfitted with sensors sensitive enough to pick up a periscope potruding from the surface soi I'd imagine similar sensor can be tweak if necessary ti pick up metal debris etc.
A LHD can also operate independantly w/o the need for escorts etc to lessen the operational costs of having an entire CSG there and be almost as effective.
anyway just my 2c.
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If satellite dopper data exists for the first four transmissions (through 17:07) and while the a/c was still in VHF range, I can only conclude that data transmissions occurred over both VHF and SAT simultaneously (or nearly so).
The satellite pings were also sent for the benefit of Inmarsat's network management, via a directional satellite antenna on the crown of the aircraft. Since they're not intended to transmit information, it seems unlikely that the same signal would also be broadcast from the aircraft over ground-communication VHF.
PriFly:
Good points. Part of your idea requires a tailor-made detachment of SH/MH-60 variants to plus up the Marines.
The normal Air Group on an LHD/LHA is cargo-people haulers and attack helicopters, and maybe even some Ospreys. Plenty of eyeballs to help in a search.
Ship has good C2 capability, air traffic control facility for others coming from farther off, and good sized boats that the ship can launch to recover bits and pieces as needed.
Based on what I am looking at on the map, you'd still ned a tighter search area first before the LHD's strengths could be best utilized.
Possible? Given that most of us in the general public only have bits and pieces of information, and based on those bits and pieces ... yes, it is possible, but I won't take it to Vegas and lay down the rent money. Feel free to consider how that "northern arch" referenced to the satellite ping (go back a few pages, some posts have that picture in them) would be possible AND how it would be possible without being noticed somewhere, somehow.
Good points. Part of your idea requires a tailor-made detachment of SH/MH-60 variants to plus up the Marines.
The normal Air Group on an LHD/LHA is cargo-people haulers and attack helicopters, and maybe even some Ospreys. Plenty of eyeballs to help in a search.
Ship has good C2 capability, air traffic control facility for others coming from farther off, and good sized boats that the ship can launch to recover bits and pieces as needed.
Based on what I am looking at on the map, you'd still ned a tighter search area first before the LHD's strengths could be best utilized.
Without wanting to sound the conspiracy theorist again, is it possible that these pings are incorrect and the aircraft is actually on the ground somewhere?
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Yes, and No
Originally Posted by TwoOneFour
It was essentially a complete scan of the areas which hadn't already been searched.
Bayes' rule found AF 447 - Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Keep in mind, this could in no way be created without prior knowledge of search failures.
Originally Posted by TwoOneFour
Eventually someone decided to stop pussyfooting around with probabilities and, on the assumption it had to be there somewhere, just scour the 10,000sqkm region from one end to the other until they found it.
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....h.analysis.pdf
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True, hopefully those lessons will have been learned and if a reasonable point of loss can be found, it will be far more initially effective in this case
There was little incompetence AFAIK. The same firm had already taken part in earlier searches. I think you'll find the mathematical principals are already being applied to MH370 e.g. why the SCS was still searched even when it was "not likely" there.
My only conclusion from AF447 as applied here is it is unlikely the recorders will be found.
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Originally Posted by NigelOnDraft
Contrary to the opinion of industry, the firm conducting the analysis downgraded this P, which led to the area close to LKP being the "most likely" to be found. It had earlier been eliminated since the much heralded "pinger detectors" had already tried there IIRC?
There was little incompetence AFAIK.
There was little incompetence AFAIK.
I am unclear if the pingers failed in AF447, or were just not heard for some reason. The area where the boxes were located were well covered initially via acoustic search. I will have to re-read the Metron report. Considering the pinger failed in US1549, there has to be some real worry here.
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Change in tone from the Chinese
Obviously, there is a lot the US military, Malaysian military and Chinese are not telling us. Interesting, I smell a cover up,as they protect their secrets and capabilities.
( Also who has info on the US Military satellite tracking capabilities.? )
¨China has also been critical in Malaysia's handling of the case, but in a sign of softening, the official China Daily said it was understandable that not all sensitive information could be made public.
"Although the Malaysian government's handling of the crisis has been quite clumsy, we need to understand that this is perhaps the most bizarre incident in Asia civil aviation history," the editorial on Monday read.
"Public opinion should not blame the Malaysian authorities for deliberately covering up information in the absence of hard evidence.¨
( Also who has info on the US Military satellite tracking capabilities.? )
¨China has also been critical in Malaysia's handling of the case, but in a sign of softening, the official China Daily said it was understandable that not all sensitive information could be made public.
"Although the Malaysian government's handling of the crisis has been quite clumsy, we need to understand that this is perhaps the most bizarre incident in Asia civil aviation history," the editorial on Monday read.
"Public opinion should not blame the Malaysian authorities for deliberately covering up information in the absence of hard evidence.¨
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Last recorded r/t transmission
"Good night Malaysian three seven zero"
A perfectly normal and routine and curtious signing off, nothing more can possibly be imputed.
What remains to be revealed are;
The full ATC transcript and how busy the KL airspace was at the relevant times.
Did the aircraft re enter KL TMA, the radar services charts and all KL FIR info may be found at the following link.
http://aip.dca.gov.my/aip%20pdf/ENR/...1.6/Enr1_6.pdf
A perfectly normal and routine and curtious signing off, nothing more can possibly be imputed.
What remains to be revealed are;
The full ATC transcript and how busy the KL airspace was at the relevant times.
Did the aircraft re enter KL TMA, the radar services charts and all KL FIR info may be found at the following link.
http://aip.dca.gov.my/aip%20pdf/ENR/...1.6/Enr1_6.pdf
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Oro-o the 1st and 2nd searches were thorough searches based on the baysain principle and the data they were given, the second one had one major change in as much as they were told the fail rate of beacons and that is what shifted the search ara, plus ruling out where they knew it wasn't, it was a scientific/mathematical based search not a thorough search of a huge area.
if i recall on the second search they hit it very quickly, MAH 370 would have to be a huge area as they are not even certain until debris is found, but I agree they should start based on Inmarsats best data for LKP.
Who knows they might get lucky before the debris searchers do.
if i recall on the second search they hit it very quickly, MAH 370 would have to be a huge area as they are not even certain until debris is found, but I agree they should start based on Inmarsats best data for LKP.
Who knows they might get lucky before the debris searchers do.