Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Forensic experts find nothing suspicious in pilot’s flight simulator, says report' on Yahoo News Malaysia. As the search for missing MH370 enters the third week, forensic experts examining the home flight simulator which was seized by police from the home of Malaysia Airlines pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah have found nothing suspicious, The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) reported.
I'm trying to get something clear. The media circus that has evolved around this incident makes it difficult to know what is confirmed and what is conjecture.
What I am trying to get clear is the last known position of MH370.
It was lost to ATC at about 0122L.
Then there are the claims that it was tracked on radar and / or that ACARS 'pings' had it in different locations, which led to claims it had been flown north-west or south-east for up to 7 or 8 hours flying time.
Have the radar tracking or ACARS data been confirmed i.e. not "it might be" but rather "it is definitely" ?
I believe that the last confirmed position was at 0122 and everything else is maybe / possible / could be, etc.
Is this correct?
What I am trying to get clear is the last known position of MH370.
It was lost to ATC at about 0122L.
Then there are the claims that it was tracked on radar and / or that ACARS 'pings' had it in different locations, which led to claims it had been flown north-west or south-east for up to 7 or 8 hours flying time.
Have the radar tracking or ACARS data been confirmed i.e. not "it might be" but rather "it is definitely" ?
I believe that the last confirmed position was at 0122 and everything else is maybe / possible / could be, etc.
Is this correct?
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Uncomfortable as it is to consider this, it's something that will have to faced eventually:
how much is this costing?
And who is paying for it?
At some time, someone is going to have to ask the uncomfortable question: how long do we continue the search, or at least when do we scale it back to something even halfway sustainable? The military - or certainly the Australian military - don't have six to eight crews per aircraft like most airlines do. One point something crews per aircraft is what they aim for - and they don't always achieve that. The huge expenditure in hours can be taken from the training budget - but only for so long. The servicing schedule of every airframe and component carried on that airframe will need to be brought forward. Planned budgets are already out the window - the money will have to be found somewhere, and that means some other area of Defence will have to suffer. (They won't dare try to take that money from any politically 'vital' area like Welfare.)
Now to the really uncomfortable bit... It's now completely immaterial whether this was done by terrorists or a rogue pilot. It doesn't matter if it was a technical fault, (any one of the theories currently out there). The uncomfortable fact is that, having seen the way the world has reacted to the disappearance of this aircraft, the Bad Guys, even if they had absolutely nothing to do with this, will without doubt now know that they are on a real winner if they can pull off another one (perhaps their first).
In my first post on this thread, I said it was all about the money. Airlines and regulatory authorities will now have to revise their procedures to cover a terrorist attack along similar lines to the one that MAY have happened in regard to MH370. Any such procedures are going to be damned expensive - and if a second attack even halfway similar to what some suspect happened to MH370 was to occur over the next few months, it will have a crippling effect on the whole aviation industry, to the point where it may send some major airlines to the financial wall.
Not at all unrelated to the question of the industry remaining viable, how long before some ambulance-chasing lawyer gets some of the families of the passengers on MH370 together to launch a class action suite claiming billions against MAS, Boeing, right down to the manufacturer of the toilet rolls carried on the flight?
how much is this costing?
And who is paying for it?
At some time, someone is going to have to ask the uncomfortable question: how long do we continue the search, or at least when do we scale it back to something even halfway sustainable? The military - or certainly the Australian military - don't have six to eight crews per aircraft like most airlines do. One point something crews per aircraft is what they aim for - and they don't always achieve that. The huge expenditure in hours can be taken from the training budget - but only for so long. The servicing schedule of every airframe and component carried on that airframe will need to be brought forward. Planned budgets are already out the window - the money will have to be found somewhere, and that means some other area of Defence will have to suffer. (They won't dare try to take that money from any politically 'vital' area like Welfare.)
Now to the really uncomfortable bit... It's now completely immaterial whether this was done by terrorists or a rogue pilot. It doesn't matter if it was a technical fault, (any one of the theories currently out there). The uncomfortable fact is that, having seen the way the world has reacted to the disappearance of this aircraft, the Bad Guys, even if they had absolutely nothing to do with this, will without doubt now know that they are on a real winner if they can pull off another one (perhaps their first).
In my first post on this thread, I said it was all about the money. Airlines and regulatory authorities will now have to revise their procedures to cover a terrorist attack along similar lines to the one that MAY have happened in regard to MH370. Any such procedures are going to be damned expensive - and if a second attack even halfway similar to what some suspect happened to MH370 was to occur over the next few months, it will have a crippling effect on the whole aviation industry, to the point where it may send some major airlines to the financial wall.
Not at all unrelated to the question of the industry remaining viable, how long before some ambulance-chasing lawyer gets some of the families of the passengers on MH370 together to launch a class action suite claiming billions against MAS, Boeing, right down to the manufacturer of the toilet rolls carried on the flight?
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XUE LONG is a survey vessel and is heading to the search area
XUE LONG - Research/survey vessel: current position and details | IMO 8877899, MMSI 412863000, Callsign BNSK | Registered in China - AIS Marine Traffic
XUE LONG - Research/survey vessel: current position and details | IMO 8877899, MMSI 412863000, Callsign BNSK | Registered in China - AIS Marine Traffic
short flights long nights
Andu, I heard your lawyer in question on the BBC this morning. He is already in China, and lining the families up for a class action. And he won't be the last, that is for sure.
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The last primary plot at 18:22 UTC (02:22 LT) seen on the Chinese picture is past MEKAR which is 248 NM/R-295 from Butterworth (courtesy Skyvector). Around N6.533 E96.383
The "letters" seems to be the time of plot, not a tag.
UAE343 was executing the turn over VAMPI at 18:17 UTC, ground speed 488 kts, FL340.
Its position at 18:22 UTC (02:22 LT) was N6.4 E96.86. This is just 29 NM in trail of the supposed MH370. Given that this is straight out from the Butterworth radar there must be a lot of confidence in the equipment that those two targets were not mixed up.
Tracks between IGARI and VAMPI are just hypothetical. The ground speed should have been around 470 kts in the area with that track. Given the delay of a wide turn at IGARI the timing should be about correct, though.
The "letters" seems to be the time of plot, not a tag.
UAE343 was executing the turn over VAMPI at 18:17 UTC, ground speed 488 kts, FL340.
Its position at 18:22 UTC (02:22 LT) was N6.4 E96.86. This is just 29 NM in trail of the supposed MH370. Given that this is straight out from the Butterworth radar there must be a lot of confidence in the equipment that those two targets were not mixed up.
Tracks between IGARI and VAMPI are just hypothetical. The ground speed should have been around 470 kts in the area with that track. Given the delay of a wide turn at IGARI the timing should be about correct, though.
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Uncomfortable as it is to consider this, it's something that will have to faced eventually:
how much is this costing?
And who is paying for it?
At some time, someone is going to have to ask the uncomfortable question: how long do we continue the search, or at least when do we scale it back to something even halfway sustainable? The military - or certainly the Australian military - don't have six to eight crews per aircraft like most airlines do. One point something crews per aircraft is what they aim for - and they don't always achieve that. The huge expenditure in hours can be taken from the training budget - but only for so long. The servicing schedule of every airframe and component carried on that airframe will need to be brought forward. Planned budgets are already out the window - the money will have to be found somewhere, and that means some other area of Defence will have to suffer. (They won't dare try to take that money from any politically 'vital' area like Welfare.)
how much is this costing?
And who is paying for it?
At some time, someone is going to have to ask the uncomfortable question: how long do we continue the search, or at least when do we scale it back to something even halfway sustainable? The military - or certainly the Australian military - don't have six to eight crews per aircraft like most airlines do. One point something crews per aircraft is what they aim for - and they don't always achieve that. The huge expenditure in hours can be taken from the training budget - but only for so long. The servicing schedule of every airframe and component carried on that airframe will need to be brought forward. Planned budgets are already out the window - the money will have to be found somewhere, and that means some other area of Defence will have to suffer. (They won't dare try to take that money from any politically 'vital' area like Welfare.)
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MH370 search latest
BREAKING
At KL press conf today, message received that China has identified a 22 x 30 metre sized object in Southern corridor (not specified where in that area) identified by their satellite(s).
This message was passed to deputy transport Minister during the conf. he was unable to give further details.
Later officially corrected by Malaysian Govt to 22.5 x 13 m
Good example of the truth of "facts" being bandied about. Even Official govt agencies make errors!
At KL press conf today, message received that China has identified a 22 x 30 metre sized object in Southern corridor (not specified where in that area) identified by their satellite(s).
This message was passed to deputy transport Minister during the conf. he was unable to give further details.
Later officially corrected by Malaysian Govt to 22.5 x 13 m
Good example of the truth of "facts" being bandied about. Even Official govt agencies make errors!
Last edited by brika; 22nd Mar 2014 at 11:07. Reason: add info and later, correction
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Andu asked:
Australia has a population of only 22 million but is the 12th largest economy in the world (17th by some measures). We are rich. I stand to be corrected here, but would think Australia will bear the cost of the rescue, being in our search and rescue zone 'n all. Australia will also take into account the benefits of treating this search as a training & learning exercise. The Chinese contribution has been deliberately described as "volunteered" so their contribution won't be charged. All of the contributions will be on a goodwill basis I would think - with eg the Norwegian car carrier chatting with its own government re its costs. Re whether to recover any costs from Malaysian Airlines - that would be pretty diplomatically nuanced, you would think, even if a viable proposition.
Uncomfortable as it is to consider this, it's something that will have to faced eventually:
how much is this costing?
And who is paying for it?
how much is this costing?
And who is paying for it?
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What a commentary on the whole operation that the announcement just now was, in effect, that China had spotted something 22 X 30m and that China is sending 2 ships to search for it".
Hardly a co-ordinated operation then; it sounds more like an international competition to find the aircraft rather than an international effort to do that.
Exactly what we would expect when politicians call the shots.
Hardly a co-ordinated operation then; it sounds more like an international competition to find the aircraft rather than an international effort to do that.
Exactly what we would expect when politicians call the shots.
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Andu: Now to the really uncomfortable bit... It's now completely immaterial whether this was done by terrorists or a rogue pilot. It doesn't matter if it was a technical fault, (any one of the theories currently out there). The uncomfortable fact is that, having seen the way the world...
Completely wrong. It has to be part of the learning process for the whole industry. I would go as far as to say it is essential to eventually understand what happened to drive improvements in safety for future confidence in air travel.
Completely wrong. It has to be part of the learning process for the whole industry. I would go as far as to say it is essential to eventually understand what happened to drive improvements in safety for future confidence in air travel.
Can't be too many pieces of a T7 that size that could be floating.
Could conceivably be the same piece as seen before. That was described as "awash" and I imagine could look quite different sizes in different photos.
Could conceivably be the same piece as seen before. That was described as "awash" and I imagine could look quite different sizes in different photos.
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Capot said:
It's being coordinated. The fact that Chinese planes are flying into WA's Pearce Base and heading out under Australian coordination & management along with the other planes, and the fact that Chinese ships were heading for the Southern Ocean, were both announced on Thursday evening.
What a commentary on the whole operation that the announcement just now was, in effect, that China had spotted something 22 X 30m and that China is sending 2 ships to search for it".
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TURIN,
22x30m? That's a very big red herring indeed.
I suspect what we're seeing there is a potentially embarrassingly report of the woeful imaging resolution limit of that particular satellite, and unless it's a radar image, that someone might be about to get it in the neck.
22x30m? That's a very big red herring indeed.
I suspect what we're seeing there is a potentially embarrassingly report of the woeful imaging resolution limit of that particular satellite, and unless it's a radar image, that someone might be about to get it in the neck.
It has just been announced that the Chinese Govt has received satellite images of a substantial piece of 'debris' and are sending ships to the area (South Indian Sea)
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chinglish
sky news reporting the latest item found by the Chinese is actually 22m x 13m (not 30m) according to source in Beijing. Dimensions lost in Chinglish?
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Matelo, i'n not sure if the plane being in the Andaman Sea area has been confirmed or not. I was under the impression it was and then headed South from there. To me, anything between DG and Indonesia is within DG area. I would think the base at DG would be able to see anything as far as Sri Lanka at the least, and if so it should have seen MH370 heading South. There are way too many American assets there for them not to keep a wide eye in the area.
GRANTED, FACT was the wrong word to use.
GRANTED, FACT was the wrong word to use.
Part of the problem is that everything we know is third-hand or fourth-hand information. And somehow the people in charge of the investigation are really good (bad?) at playing broken telephone. Just take the radar chart linked on the previous page. This is the closest thing to the primary source we (the general public) have in the whole investigation, because it purports to show raw data rather than someone's interpretation of it. Previously, we only had someone's retelling of someone else's interpretation of that data. It took me 2 minutes of staring at the radar chart and at the skyvector map to convince myself that either the radar chart, or the original description of the track, had to be wrong.
Right now the entire search is guided by yet another fourth-hand factoid: the infamous Inmarsat arc. In the grand scheme of things, this factoid makes very little sense, since it implies one of two things - either that the person in control of the aircraft skilfully navigated his way into Andaman Sea, waypoint to waypoint, only to turn the plane 90 degrees towards one of the most remote parts of the ocean and fly in that direction for several hours, in effect, making this an extremely elaborate suicide; or that the same person managed to evade air defense systems of India, Pakistan and/or China and either crash or land in Central Asia.
I can't help but start feeling that it's yet another false lead. Someone made a mistake somewhere along the way, and now everyone is chasing their tails searching for it in the wrong part of the planet.
Suppose that we don't have the Inmarsat distance data, all we have is two bits of information. 1) MH370 was on heading 285 in south Andaman Sea at 1822 UTC. 2) it was still airborne at 0011 UTC. Where would we look for it? Early on, several people in this very thread suggested Somalia. Could be Yemen, or even (less likely) Iran. All somewhat credible destinations for a pirate, all in the right direction and reachable in 6 hours, give or take, without coming afoul of Indian air defense installations.
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Malaysia has clarified that the object found by China is 22.5m by 13m, not 22m by 30m.
Its transport ministry says it received the information by phone during the press conference and was misheard,
Its transport ministry says it received the information by phone during the press conference and was misheard,
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The simplest explanation is that inmarsat are tracing a terminal not installed on the lost aircraft.
Once ranging errors are allowed for, the likely location of the inmarsat terminal is the maintenance base at KL.
Take the pings out of the equation, and we have a very simple scenario; fire compromises comms system, fire results in loss of aircraft control. Aircraft crashes in Asia.
PS: i've been posting this hypothesis since the 16th, but my posts have never appeared.
Once ranging errors are allowed for, the likely location of the inmarsat terminal is the maintenance base at KL.
Take the pings out of the equation, and we have a very simple scenario; fire compromises comms system, fire results in loss of aircraft control. Aircraft crashes in Asia.
PS: i've been posting this hypothesis since the 16th, but my posts have never appeared.
Spoofing would probably be possible, but would take a substantial amount of technical knowledge. The pings along show it's not a stationary terminal, unless someone has dismantled it and managed to adjust the synchronization internally to just the right level with millisecond accuracy, or has written some pretty complex software to emulate a terminal. They'd also need to know just when the real 777's SATCOM terminal went off so they could turn theirs on.
If it's not the real terminal, this would probably be the most sophisticated hijacking ever seen (which, admittedly, it may still turn out to be).
If it's not the real terminal, this would probably be the most sophisticated hijacking ever seen (which, admittedly, it may still turn out to be).