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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 20th Mar 2014, 10:57
  #6541 (permalink)  
 
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TV news Weather report
Location in middle of developing cold front.
Vis 1km in areas of rain
Low cloud 500 ft
Rough seas, big swells
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 10:59
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Think he corrected himself," received the information today but was unsure of date the pictures were taken "
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:00
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drift

I wouldn't expect surface current to be more than 0.5 - 1 knots in that region, amounting to lets say 150 - 240 nm in 12 days. If drift wasn't in a straight line it's even less.

Those drift buoys are exposed to the wind as well, their behavior shouldn't differ much from debris.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:07
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can anyone, confirm that data collected from the pilots simulator indicated he had made several approaches to Diego Garcia?
Where in that article does it say that? What it actually says is (my italics):

Some of the information already recovered from the simulator suggests the pilot may have practised landing at a remote US military base on Diego Garcia
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:17
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So, were they tankering fuel?
Surely this point has been determined by now
The Malaysian authorities confirmed that there was nothing unusual about the fuel uptake for this flight and the perceived wisdom when this was discussed a few days ago, was that MAS would pay less than 30% for fuel at KUL than they would at PEK therefore it would make no sense to buy fuel in China.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:18
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Channel 9 will have a "Special Report" from a reporter who was on board one of the Australian search aircraft after the footy show (in twenty minutes).

This is Melbourne so not sure if other states will have it but I think they would.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:18
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can anyone, confirm that data collected from the pilots simulator indicated he had made several approaches to Diego Garcia?
So what? I've done approaches with a 737-800 onto a carrier in the pacific, doesn't mean I'm actually going to do it.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:20
  #6548 (permalink)  
 
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Surely its obvious looking at the data, he either flew there or he didnt
There was something a few days ago about how he had certain airports in his database, including Diego Garcia. I think it's likely this article has sprung from that. Airport is in database = may have flown there, along with all the other hundreds/thousands of airports that were probably in his database
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:22
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"Malaysia Airlines plans to fly relatives of the passengers and crew to Perth if the objects are confirmed to be from MH370, the company's chief executive Ahmad Jauhar Yahya has said."

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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:26
  #6550 (permalink)  
 
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I know its a Lo res (highly magnified) image, but it looks to me a lot more like 2 x 40' containers on their side than any part I could recognise as Boeing.

Aircraft (especially when badly bent) dont look so square. The tail of AF447 springs to mind.

No ELT heard from the P3? Or have I missed a good explanation?

Having written this I have no doubt there will be a PC announcing confirmation of fuselage pieces!
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:26
  #6551 (permalink)  
 
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The Orions seem to have only two hours on target. I know that is a lot with the gear they have but (and I know it is probably a silly question.) I thought they could be aerial refueled for extended range. I know extra crew would be needed especially the pilots though the operators could probably get some rest on the transit flight. It seems that an extra two or three hours on station would be of benefit as time is of the essence in any search although sadly in those conditionions I doubt there are any survivors.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:27
  #6552 (permalink)  
 
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Why would an experienced T7 pilot need to practice approaches to DG. Even allowing for the fact that FS X is very unlikely to have an accurate rendering of the place it is dead flat, no obstructions, no complex approach no nothing . If he could land a T7 as his day job then he could land at DG without ever having to practice.

I think the only significance DG could have for this sad story is that it is one place where there will be an alert and active air defence radar coverage however it is actually provided and we would know if MH370 went anywhere within 500 miles of the place.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:29
  #6553 (permalink)  
 
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Latest Press Release From Malaysia
They like the Southern Corridor

Thursday, March 20, 05:30 PM MYT +0800*Malaysia Airlines MH370 Flight Incident - MH370 Press Briefing by Hishammuddin Hussein, Minister of Defence and Acting Minister of Transport


1.*** Australian satellite images

At 10:00 this morning, the Prime Minister received a call from the Prime Minister of Australia, informing him that ‘two possible objects related to the search’ for MH370 had been identified in the Southern Indian Ocean. The Australian authorities in Kuala Lumpur have also briefed me on the situation, and the Australian Foreign Minister has spoken to the Foreign Minister of Malaysia.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) continues co-ordinating the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines aircraft within Australia’s search and rescue area, with assistance from the Australian Defence Force, the New Zealand Air Force, and the US Navy.

AMSA’s Rescue Co-ordination Centre (RCC) Australia has received satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search for MH370.

RCC Australia received an expert assessment of commercial satellite imagery today. The images were captured by satellite. They may not be related to the aircraft.

The assessment of these images was provided by the Australian Geospatial Intelligence Organisation as a possible indication of debris southwest of Perth.

As a result of this information, four aircraft have been re-orientated to an area 2,500 kilometres southwest of Perth.

A Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion aircraft arrived in the area at about 10:50AM.

Another 3 aircraft have been tasked by RCC Australia to the area, including a second RAAF Orion, a Royal New Zealand Air Force Orion, and a US Navy P-8 Poseidon.

The Poseidon was expected to arrive early this afternoon. The second RAAF Orion was expected to depart RAAF Base Pearce, Perth, mid-afternoon. The New Zealand Orion was due to depart this afternoon.

An RAAF C-130 Hercules aircraft has been tasked by RCC Australia to drop datum marker buoys to assist in drift modelling. They will provide an on-going reference point if the task of relocating the objects becomes protracted.

A merchant ship that responded to a shipping broadcast issued by RCC Australia on Monday was also expected to arrive in the area this afternoon.*

The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Success is en route to the area but is some days away. The ship is well equipped to recover any objects located and proven to be from MH370.

Every effort is being made to locate the objects seen in the satellite imagery. It must be stressed that these sightings, while credible, are still to be confirmed.

2.*** Assets deployed

The search for MH370 is a multinational effort. I will now give you an update on the assets which have been deployed.

During the course of this operation, the Chief of the Defence Force has spoken to his counterparts from countries including:

•******* Australia

•******* China

•******* India

•******* Indonesia

•******* Japan

•******* Maldives

•******* Nepal

•******* New Zealand

•******* Singapore

•******* Thailand

•******* Vietnam

•******* The UK

•******* And the USA.

All were very supportive, and all offered their assistance. As the focus of the search has moved from the South China Sea and Straits of Malacca to the northern and southern corridors, our international partners have continued to provide whatever support they can.

A number of assets have been deployed at different phases of the search and rescue operation.

Currently, there are 18 ships, 29 aircraft and 6 ship-borne helicopters deployed along the northern and southern corridors, as follows:

Aircraft

In the northern corridor, there are 4 aircraft:

•******* 2 from Malaysia

•******* 1 from Japan

•******* And 1 from the US.

In the southern corridor, there are 25 aircraft:

•******* 2 from Malaysia

•******* 5 from Australia

•******* 3 from China

•******* 4 from Indonesia

•******* 2 from India

•******* 4 from Japan

•******* 1 from New Zealand

•******* 2 from South Korea

•******* 1 from the UAE

•******* And 1 from the USA.

Ships

All 18 ships are in the southern corridor:

•******* 6 from Malaysia

•******* 1 from Australia

•******* 5 from China

•******* And 6 from Indonesia.

This deployment includes 6 helicopters:

•******* 3 from Malaysia, and 3 from China.*

Until we are certain that we have located MH370, search and rescue operations will continue in both corridors. I can confirm that Malaysia is sending 2 aircraft to Kazakhstan, and the UK is planning to send 1 ship to the southern corridor.

In addition to the assets I just listed above, a number of countries in the northern corridor are carrying out search and rescue operations within their own territory:

•******* China is using every means possible, including 21 satellites, to search the area within its borders, and is ready to send more ships and aircraft wherever they are needed.

•******* In Cambodia, 4 helicopters are conducting search operations within Cambodian territory.

•******* The Laos Air Force is carrying out search operations within Laos.

•******* Singapore are using their International Information Fusion Centre, where a Malaysian representative is stationed, to notify mariners and help with the search.

•******* The Thai military are conducting search operations in the northern part of Thailand with all available aircraft.

•******* And Vietnam are conducting search operations within their territory using an unspecified number of aircraft.

Together this represents a significant international force deployment. I am thankful for the co-operation of our partners as we continue to focus on finding MH370.

3.*** Family care

The high-level team I announced yesterday is leaving for Beijing this evening.

I would also like to confirm that representatives from the Malaysian government spoke to the families who were present here yesterday.

In addition, the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy to China, and the Chinese Ambassador to Malaysia, will lead a briefing today for the Chinese families who are here in Kuala Lumpur.

Also in attendance will be the Department of Civil Aviation, the Armed Forces, the Royal Malaysia Police, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and MAS. A similar briefing will also be held for the other families.

4.*** Concluding remarks

For families around the world, the one piece of information they want most is the information we just don’t have: the location of MH370.

Our primary focus has always been to find the aircraft. And with every passing day, our efforts have intensified.

Yesterday I said that we wanted to reduce the area of the search. We now have a credible lead. There remains much work to be done to deploy the assets. This work will continue overnight.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:32
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10:02pm: Norwegian car carrier Hoegh St Petersburg has reached the search area, the ship owner said on Thursday.
The car carrier was on its way from Madagascar to Melbourne when it got a request from Australian authorities to assist in investigating the objects.


Read more: Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Debris found in search for MH370, says Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:38
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in-flight refuelling

@harryw

P3 not fitted with air-to-air refuelling capability

P8 does
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:43
  #6556 (permalink)  
 
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We have not heard many details about Chinese search. It is interesting that all Chinese air and naval assets are apparently south.

I guess there are reasons they would prefer it went south. But you have to wonder what information they got from all their satellites.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 11:59
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Very well sourced bloomberg story. Including fuel load.

FBI Joins Malaysia Jet Probe as Simulator Data Sought
By Angus Whitley, Manirajan Ramasamy and David Fickling
March 19, 2014 11:00 PM EDT
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The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation joined Malaysia’s inquiry into the missing jet as authorities sought to retrieve deleted data on a computer flight simulator belonging to the plane’s pilot.
The FBI’s involvement, disclosed yesterday by the White House, widens the U.S. role in probing Flight 370’s disappearance. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and Federal Aviation Administration are already working with Malaysian authorities, as is the U.S. military.
“There’s been close cooperation with the Malaysian government,” President Barack Obama said in an interview with a Dallas television station. He said the investigation is a “top priority.”
The search area for the Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200ER narrowed in the southern Indian Ocean after an analysis of the plane’s probable fuel reserves. Aircraft from Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. patrolled a zone the size of Italy while the inquiry into the simulator opened a new front in the mystery that began March 8 when Flight 370 vanished with 239 people on board.
Malaysia gave India new coordinates to look for the plane, following which the country will deploy its P-8I long-range aircraft, D.K. Sharma, a spokesman for the Indian Navy, said by phone today. India will search the ocean in a location south of Jakarta, Sharma said.
Simulator Examined
Malaysia has brought in local and international experts to examine the simulator, Hishammuddin said. Some data had been deleted and “forensic work” to retrieve it was under way, he said. The data log was cleared on Feb. 3, according to Khalid Abu Bakar, the country’s police chief.
The homes of pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid were searched on March 15 after Prime Minister Najib Razak said the Malaysian Airline System Bhd. (MAS) plane was intentionally diverted. It lost contact and disappeared from radar screens less than an hour after it left Kuala Lumpur bound for Beijing. Initial inquiries indicated the co-pilot was last heard by air traffic controllers.
“The passengers, the pilots and the crew remain innocent until proven otherwise,” Malaysian Acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said. “For the sake of their families, I ask that we refrain from any unnecessary speculation that might make an already difficult time even harder.”
White House Press Secretary Jay Carney declined to comment on the status of the investigation into Flight 370 while confirming that the FBI was involved.
Patrols Resuming
“We are finding that the level of cooperation with the Malaysian government is solid,” Carney told reporters. “But I have no update on the course of the investigation. It remains the case that, you know, we are not in the position yet to draw conclusions about what happened.”
Air patrols by the U.S., New Zealand and Australia are resuming today in the southern Indian Ocean, according to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.
An assessment by the NTSB allowed the search to be focused on an area about the half the size of the zone planned earlier, according to John Young, the agency’s general manager of emergency response. The search zone is about 305,000 square kilometers (118,000 square miles).
Fuel Load
The search for the Malaysian jet, which lost contact with air traffic control less than an hour after leaving Kuala Lumpur at 12:41 a.m. on March 8 en route to Beijing, is the longest in modern passenger-airline history. The previous record was the 10-day search for a Boeing Co. 737-400 operated by Indonesia’s PT Adam Skyconnection Airlines, which went missing off the coast of that country’s Sulawesi island Jan. 1, 2007.
The Boeing 777 was carrying 49.1 metric tons (54.1 tons) of fuel when it departed Kuala Lumpur, for a total takeoff weight of 223.5 tons, according to Subang Jaya-based Malaysian Air.
Satellite signals emitted periodically from Flight 370 even after other communications were shut down showed the jet operated for almost seven hours after last making contact. That may have taken the plane more than 3,000 miles from its last known location to the limits to the fuel on board, if it remained airborne the whole time.
U.S. investigators are reviewing satellite pings from routine flights in an attempt to determine the accuracy of the estimates of where the jet flew, said a person familiar with the probe who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
Accuracy Estimates
A jet carrying global-positioning equipment would know its exact position, and that could be compared with estimates derived from its pings to the Inmarsat Plc satellite, the person said.
The distance from the London-based company’s satellite over the Indian Ocean to Flight 370 must have been calculated using the time it took for radio beams to travel back and forth, Tom Stansell, a consultant who helped develop the GPS system starting in 1960, said in an interview.
The arcs released by the Malaysian government showing where the plane was at 8:11 a.m. on March 8 are probably accurate to within about 100 miles, Tim Farrar, president of Telecom, Media & Finance Associates of Menlo Park, California, said in an interview. The company does satellite and telecommunications consulting.
Much of the area Australia is scouring is within the Roaring Forties, a region between the 40th and 50th degrees of latitude south known for strong winds and wave conditions, according to charts provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority. That may diminish the chances of debris still being afloat so long after the jet vanished.
To contact the reporters on this story: Angus Whitley in Sydney at [email protected]; Manirajan Ramasamy in Kuala Lumpur at [email protected]; David Fickling in Sydney at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Anand Krishnamoorthy at [email protected] Ed Dufner, Bernard Kohn
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 12:07
  #6558 (permalink)  
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The FMC is very useful for an established route, SID or approach but don't get mesmerised by what may or may not have been entered into the FMC, in this case, quite possible that from 01.19 the rest of the flight was conducted in FLCH and HDG Select.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 12:09
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So many people seem to think that the participation of players like China, Malaysia, US, Indonesia etc is dominated by geopolitics, deception, and even commercial advantage. There is no doubt that security sensitivities will influence actions and will certainly influence public information sharing. There is no doubt that cooperative approaches are challenged by a whole range of sovereign and institutional barriers. But all of the people involved are people; people with families, friends, relatives and emotions and I would expect that most players just want to help people suffering.

Think about it. It's difficult enough to agree on what you are going to have for dinner each night. Instead of this somewhat paranoid and dysfunctional view, which is not entirely unwarranted, I happen to think we are seeing an effort of global cooperation that we should celebrate rather than pick holes in. Because the holes are going to be there despite best efforts.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 12:19
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Ping accuracy

The arcs released by the Malaysian government showing where the plane was at 8:11 a.m. on March 8 are probably accurate to within about 100 miles, Tim Farrar, president of Telecom, Media & Finance Associates of Menlo Park, California, said in an interview.
Interesting!

Until now, most people with a knowledge of Inmarsat operation, latency and other errors have said that the 'ping distance' is accurate to +/- 5 km. If this new estimate of +/- 100miles is true, then even the very limited conclusions that can be drawn from analysing the 5 previous ping arcs would become virtually useless as the arcs become even more 'blurred'.
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